Consumerbet.com
ConsumerBet.com
Recommended Sports Books
Handicapping Information
Fraud Alert
Sports and Gaming News
About Consumer Bet
 
     
  ACC TEAMS COVERING 21% OF NON-CONFERENCE GAMES….AND AN EARLY NFL ANOMOLY — 9/20/2006
By Kevin O’Neill
If you went into the college season looking to do nothing but fade ACC teams, you’d be in clover right now. Teams from that self-proclaimed “power conference” have a pointspread record of 4-15 against non-conference foes. That includes a lucky cover with Boston College covering 6½ with a 7-point win in double overtime against BYU last Saturday. Those numbers don’t include non-lined games such as Duke’s loss to 1-AA Richmond, North Carolina’s 45-42 shave at home against 1-AA Furman (giving up 521 yards in the process) or unimpressive 13-point wins over 1-AA schools by Maryland (over Bill & Mary) and NC State (over Appalachian State).

One of those ACC failures contributed to a tough week for sports fans in Miami. The Hurricanes were crushed at Louisville, Dolphins embarrassed at home by Buffalo, the contending Marlins blow a 4-run lead in the 10th in Atlanta on Sunday to drop their series in Atlanta. South Florida fans can’t even take any solace in their mid-major football teams, as Florida Atlantic and Florida International are a combined 0-6. Miami folks denied an emergency meeting by UM bigwigs on the future of Larry Coker, but it is worth noting that Coker didn’t show up for his keynote speaking gig at the weekly Atlanta Touchdown Club luncheon on Monday. Practice was cited as the reason, but Miami has this Saturday off and only Houston on deck on September 30. Hmmmmmm.

Sometimes reputation is more important than reality. In setting up a question to Toledo coach Tom Amstutz after the Rockets OT victory over Kansas last week ESPN’s Heather Cox said “you’ve got a knack for knocking off BCS teams….” In actuality, before defeating Kansas (as a 5-point favorite), 7 of Toledo’s 8 games against BCS conference foes had been losses, with margins of defeat being 29, 49, 42, 27, 26, 18 and 10 points. .

If it seems to you that there are a lot of bad teams, a lot of good teams, and not a ton of in-between teams in the NFL, you’re on to something. In a pure parity situation, with NFL teams having a 50% chance of winning each game, there would be 8 undefeated teams, 8 winless teams, and 16 teams at 1-1. But there are not twice as many 1-1 teams as either 0-2 or 2-0 outfits. In fact, there are fewer 1-1 teams than anything else. 10 teams are 1-1 while 11 teams are 2-0 and 11 teams are 0-2. Last year there were 18 1-1 teams after week 2, along with 7 teams with 0-2 records while 7 clubs enjoyed 2-0 records. We’ll look at the pointspread ramifications of this in a Friday email report. If you’re not on our email list remedy that by visiting www.FootballAnnual.com right now.

Chris Fowler earned a little street cred among college football fans when he admitted to be disappointed that the ESPN Gameday crew would be following tens of thousands of Nebraskans to Southern Cal instead of hitting the much more meaningful LSU at Auburn game. Fowler wrote about business considerations being more influential than they had been in the past with the decision to pump up the ABC primetime affair in LA instead of hitting the CBS telecast from Auburn, Alabama.

Our complimenting Mike Nolan’s coaching tactics drew some response, and one who agreed with the Niner coach’s kicking a FG in the last minute to cut the lead to 7 and leave enough time to try to tie it up is apparently a pretty staunch contrarian, He wrote “The Raiders will fit into my various dog scenarios a lot this year and I am already mentally and financially prepared for Art Shell to adversely effect my bankroll. Art Shell is not kicking field goals down 10 on first down late in the 4th, I guarantee that.”

In past Julys and Augusts I’ve enjoyed Frank Lyons’ commentary when I’m catching a couple of races from Del Mar, but he seemed strangely disinterested during the few portions of the recent meet that I caught before football left no time. If you were frustrated by some of the shortcomings of TVG during this summer’s racing season, you weren’t alone. The Washington Post’s inimitable Andrew Beyer comments here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/09/12/AR2006091201456.html

15:45 into their game at Chicago the Lions were averaging 9.5 yards per rush and Jon Kitna was 4 for 4 for 40 yards. So how did they trail 17-0? How about 2 sacks, 2 lost fumbles, and 7 penalties for 58 yards. That’s as sloppy as it gets. It wasn’t that the Patriots couldn’t afford to sign Deion Branch. They’re around $10 million under the salary cap. They just don’t value the wide receiver position enough to give him the big bucks. GM Scott Pioli and Bill Belichick are likely wise to stick to their guns, as their system has been enormously successful, but you’ve got to wonder about the grumbling in the locker room. Tom Brady clearly isn’t thrilled to lack his primary weapon. But all the same things were said after the Pats let Lawyer Milloy go to divisional rival Buffalo, remember ESPN’s Tom Jackson saying that the Patriots “hate their coach” after an embarrassing opening loss against Milloy’s Bills? New England proceeded to win 34 of their next 37 games, including two Super Bowls. Not that the Pats are poised for anything close to that kind of dominance, but reports of locker room strife in New England may be overstated.

Atlanta was attempting to keep a couple of roster spots open by having Michael Koenen kick off, place kick, and punt. Koenen earned Jim Mora’s confidence by hitting all 8 of his preseason field goal attempts. But after Koenen’s 2-8 start to the regular season the Falcons signed 46-year old Morten Anderson, who last kicked in 2004 with the Vikings. Last year Atlanta’s kicker was Todd Peterson, who converted 23 of 25 field goals but is now out of a job. By contrast, Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt converted 23 of 25 field goals and nabbed a $2.5 million signing bonus from the Cowboys.

The easy win for under bettors in the Bucs/Falcons game could have gone the other way pretty easily. Judging from all the missed FG attempts you can tell there was lots of yardage between the 20's and then poor efficiency. Atlanta ran for more than 300 yards and Tampa Bay passed for over 300. Also, Atlanta dropped 3 INT's that all could have been returned for TD's and TB's Derrick Brooks had an INT return for a TD called back on a dreadful block-in-the-back call. That's why I prefer hoops totals. Even with last minute fouling histrionics, there is much more "When you're supposed to win, you win. When you're supposed to lose, you lose."

Oklahoma lost at Oregon in large part to an onside kick granted to Oregon where Oregon clearly touched the ball before ten yards and Oklahoma clearly recovered the ball. What is this replay system for again? Last year OU suffered a similar fate at Texas Tech, with Tech granted a phantom TD on the last play of the game. Bobby Stoops was able to get his charges up for the next week’s game, but that was the season-ender against cross-state rival Oklahoma State. Middle Tennessee State engenders no such passion, especially when the next game on the horizon is against Texas (with a week off first). Look for the MTSU Blue Raiders to hang around with sleepwalking OU just enough to cover this huge number.

The Ravens defensive numbers are extraordinary. They are allowing 3 points and 153 yards per game on a microscopic 3 yards per play. While Baltimore was fortunate to draw a couple of opponents thus far who are very week offensively, with neither scoring a TD in their other game as well, we shouldn’t criticize Baltimore for their mediocre opposition. They are fortunate again in their draw this week, as Cleveland isn’t much of a threat right now, with an average yardage deficit in the first two weeks of 244-404. Don’t be surprised if the Ravens roll in this one. The Browns 19-14 home loss to New Orleans and 34-17 defeat at the Bengals were actually not that close, as the Browns scored late TD’s in both games. Baltimore is simply a significantly better team on both sides of the ball, and the mistakes they force Charlie Frye into will help them to a comfortable win here. Go with the Ravens.

Thanks for reading Sports & Gaming News this week. Good luck and be careful. For a free copy of our 2006 Maximum Profit Football Annual visit www.FootballAnnual.com You’ll also get a free email subscription to this Sports & Gaming News column when you arrange to get your free football annual by visiting www.FootballAnnual.com.




Previous Issues of Sports and Gaming News
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002

 
     
s