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By Kevin O’Neill
If you went into the college season looking to do nothing but
fade ACC teams, you’d be in clover right now. Teams from
that self-proclaimed “power conference” have a pointspread
record of 4-15 against non-conference foes. That includes a
lucky cover with Boston College covering 6½ with a 7-point
win in double overtime against BYU last Saturday. Those numbers
don’t include non-lined games such as Duke’s loss
to 1-AA Richmond, North Carolina’s 45-42 shave at home
against 1-AA Furman (giving up 521 yards in the process) or
unimpressive 13-point wins over 1-AA schools by Maryland (over
Bill & Mary) and NC State (over Appalachian State).
One of those ACC failures contributed to a tough week for
sports fans in Miami. The Hurricanes were crushed at Louisville,
Dolphins embarrassed at home by Buffalo, the contending Marlins
blow a 4-run lead in the 10th in Atlanta on Sunday to drop
their series in Atlanta. South Florida fans can’t even
take any solace in their mid-major football teams, as Florida
Atlantic and Florida International are a combined 0-6. Miami
folks denied an emergency meeting by UM bigwigs on the future
of Larry Coker, but it is worth noting that Coker didn’t
show up for his keynote speaking gig at the weekly Atlanta
Touchdown Club luncheon on Monday. Practice was cited as the
reason, but Miami has this Saturday off and only Houston on
deck on September 30. Hmmmmmm.
Sometimes reputation is more important than reality. In setting
up a question to Toledo coach Tom Amstutz after the Rockets
OT victory over Kansas last week ESPN’s Heather Cox
said “you’ve got a knack for knocking off BCS
teams….” In actuality, before defeating Kansas
(as a 5-point favorite), 7 of Toledo’s 8 games against
BCS conference foes had been losses, with margins of defeat
being 29, 49, 42, 27, 26, 18 and 10 points. .
If it seems to you that there are a lot of bad teams, a lot
of good teams, and not a ton of in-between teams in the NFL,
you’re on to something. In a pure parity situation,
with NFL teams having a 50% chance of winning each game, there
would be 8 undefeated teams, 8 winless teams, and 16 teams
at 1-1. But there are not twice as many 1-1 teams as either
0-2 or 2-0 outfits. In fact, there are fewer 1-1 teams than
anything else. 10 teams are 1-1 while 11 teams are 2-0 and
11 teams are 0-2. Last year there were 18 1-1 teams after
week 2, along with 7 teams with 0-2 records while 7 clubs
enjoyed 2-0 records. We’ll look at the pointspread ramifications
of this in a Friday email report. If you’re not on our
email list remedy that by visiting www.FootballAnnual.com
right now.
Chris Fowler earned a little street cred among college football
fans when he admitted to be disappointed that the ESPN Gameday
crew would be following tens of thousands of Nebraskans to
Southern Cal instead of hitting the much more meaningful LSU
at Auburn game. Fowler wrote about business considerations
being more influential than they had been in the past with
the decision to pump up the ABC primetime affair in LA instead
of hitting the CBS telecast from Auburn, Alabama.
Our complimenting Mike Nolan’s coaching tactics drew
some response, and one who agreed with the Niner coach’s
kicking a FG in the last minute to cut the lead to 7 and leave
enough time to try to tie it up is apparently a pretty staunch
contrarian, He wrote “The Raiders will fit into my various
dog scenarios a lot this year and I am already mentally and
financially prepared for Art Shell to adversely effect my
bankroll. Art Shell is not kicking field goals down 10 on
first down late in the 4th, I guarantee that.”
In past Julys and Augusts I’ve enjoyed Frank Lyons’
commentary when I’m catching a couple of races from
Del Mar, but he seemed strangely disinterested during the
few portions of the recent meet that I caught before football
left no time. If you were frustrated by some of the shortcomings
of TVG during this summer’s racing season, you weren’t
alone. The Washington Post’s inimitable Andrew Beyer
comments here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2006/09/12/AR2006091201456.html
15:45 into their game at Chicago the Lions were averaging
9.5 yards per rush and Jon Kitna was 4 for 4 for 40 yards.
So how did they trail 17-0? How about 2 sacks, 2 lost fumbles,
and 7 penalties for 58 yards. That’s as sloppy as it
gets. It wasn’t that the Patriots couldn’t afford
to sign Deion Branch. They’re around $10 million under
the salary cap. They just don’t value the wide receiver
position enough to give him the big bucks. GM Scott Pioli
and Bill Belichick are likely wise to stick to their guns,
as their system has been enormously successful, but you’ve
got to wonder about the grumbling in the locker room. Tom
Brady clearly isn’t thrilled to lack his primary weapon.
But all the same things were said after the Pats let Lawyer
Milloy go to divisional rival Buffalo, remember ESPN’s
Tom Jackson saying that the Patriots “hate their coach”
after an embarrassing opening loss against Milloy’s
Bills? New England proceeded to win 34 of their next 37 games,
including two Super Bowls. Not that the Pats are poised for
anything close to that kind of dominance, but reports of locker
room strife in New England may be overstated.
Atlanta was attempting to keep a couple of roster spots open
by having Michael Koenen kick off, place kick, and punt. Koenen
earned Jim Mora’s confidence by hitting all 8 of his
preseason field goal attempts. But after Koenen’s 2-8
start to the regular season the Falcons signed 46-year old
Morten Anderson, who last kicked in 2004 with the Vikings.
Last year Atlanta’s kicker was Todd Peterson, who converted
23 of 25 field goals but is now out of a job. By contrast,
Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt converted 23 of 25 field goals
and nabbed a $2.5 million signing bonus from the Cowboys.
The easy win for under bettors in the Bucs/Falcons game could
have gone the other way pretty easily. Judging from all the
missed FG attempts you can tell there was lots of yardage
between the 20's and then poor efficiency. Atlanta ran for
more than 300 yards and Tampa Bay passed for over 300. Also,
Atlanta dropped 3 INT's that all could have been returned
for TD's and TB's Derrick Brooks had an INT return for a TD
called back on a dreadful block-in-the-back call. That's why
I prefer hoops totals. Even with last minute fouling histrionics,
there is much more "When you're supposed to win, you
win. When you're supposed to lose, you lose."
Oklahoma lost at Oregon in large part to an onside kick granted
to Oregon where Oregon clearly touched the ball before ten
yards and Oklahoma clearly recovered the ball. What is this
replay system for again? Last year OU suffered a similar fate
at Texas Tech, with Tech granted a phantom TD on the last
play of the game. Bobby Stoops was able to get his charges
up for the next week’s game, but that was the season-ender
against cross-state rival Oklahoma State. Middle Tennessee
State engenders no such passion, especially when the next
game on the horizon is against Texas (with a week off first).
Look for the MTSU Blue Raiders to hang around with sleepwalking
OU just enough to cover this huge number.
The Ravens defensive numbers are extraordinary. They are
allowing 3 points and 153 yards per game on a microscopic
3 yards per play. While Baltimore was fortunate to draw a
couple of opponents thus far who are very week offensively,
with neither scoring a TD in their other game as well, we
shouldn’t criticize Baltimore for their mediocre opposition.
They are fortunate again in their draw this week, as Cleveland
isn’t much of a threat right now, with an average yardage
deficit in the first two weeks of 244-404. Don’t be
surprised if the Ravens roll in this one. The Browns 19-14
home loss to New Orleans and 34-17 defeat at the Bengals were
actually not that close, as the Browns scored late TD’s
in both games. Baltimore is simply a significantly better
team on both sides of the ball, and the mistakes they force
Charlie Frye into will help them to a comfortable win here.
Go with the Ravens.
Thanks for reading Sports & Gaming News this week. Good
luck and be careful. For a free copy of our 2006 Maximum Profit
Football Annual visit www.FootballAnnual.com
You’ll also get a free email subscription to this Sports
& Gaming News column when you arrange to get your free
football annual by visiting www.FootballAnnual.com.
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