By Kevin O’Neill
What conferences have teams that are getting their backers
the money this football season? Let’s take a look at
the spread records in interconference games thus far.
| Conference |
Pointspread Record |
Winning % |
| ACC |
1-3 |
33% |
| Big 10 |
6-4 |
60% |
| Big 12 |
6-4 |
60% |
| Big East |
3-3 |
50% |
| Conference USA |
2-3 |
40% |
| MAC |
3-4 |
43% |
| mountain West |
3-1 |
75% |
| Pac 10 |
5-2 |
71% |
| SEC |
4-5 |
44% |
| Sun Belt |
3-4 |
435 |
| WAC |
1-6 |
14% |
| Independent |
2-0 |
100% |
It is important to avoid overreacting to the small sample
sizes. For instance, the Mountain West’s 3-1 mark is
nice until you consider that BYU, Utah, and Colorado State
all played in games that could have gone the other way in
the final minute. Anything from 4-0 to 1-3 was highly possible
there. But there is some data we just can’t ignore.
On the positive side is the strong effort by the Pac Ten,
where all five covers have been authoritative, including four
by two TD’s or more.
Waaaayyyyyy on the negative side is the WAC. Fresno State
was the only team to cover the number, back-dooring Tennessee
on a long INT return for a TD late in the game. The rest of
the teams all got slaughtered. In fact the conference as a
whole has been outscored 334-59, albeit against tough teams.
But even though the WAC schedule has been challenging, the
pointspread is supposed to be the great equalizer. That has
not been the case for the WAC, as the six spread losses have
been by a total of 131½ points to the number. That
is the kind of early performance that is well worth noting.
A lot of people are going to be reminded of something this
weekend as they twiddle their thumbs and stifle a yawn in
the blazing sun. Being at an NFL game can be dreadful. The
game itself is fine, plenty of athleticism, each 60-minutes
of play is 6.25% of the season and therefore critically important.
But the TV timeouts simply kill any rhythm there is to attending
a game. Of course this is not a problem with the Direct TV
NFL package, just whirl around, which is why the NFL is the
closest thing to a “studio sport”. It takes the
prime time games for us serial remote controllers to realize
exactly how many commercials are in a game. One benefit however,
when the Sunday night commercials are on you aren’t
listening to Theismann.
Although they’re not exactly looking for direction
from this corner, we’ve got some advice for the striped
shirts. Several times each weekend, you’ll hear a referee
call a penalty to the crowd, “Personal Foul, Defense
#25….” This announcement is immediately followed
by either wild screams (if the penalty is on the visitors)
or rabid booing (if the home team is seen as the offender).
The crowd noise drowns out the matching call against the offensive
team and everyone scratches their head when a 15-yard sentence
isn’t carried out. Our suggestion, always introduce
offsetting fouls with the announcement “We have offsetting
penalties against both teams….” This will better
inform the crowd and viewing audience and save the officials
a lot of trouble. You’re welcome.
This is an interesting time of the year in the NFL. We’ve
had six months of overanalysis on personnel moves, coaching
moves, free agency, and the draft. The Redskins, Chiefs, and
Bills are among teams that supposedly ramped up their defenses
in the offseason via free agency. We’ll see. You really
never know how teams are going to come together this time
of year in the NFL. Take the Bengals, for instance. They lost
Takeo Spikes to free agency and the starters in their defensive
backfield totaled only 5 interceptions last year. But they
picked up Kevin Hardy and John Thornton to bolster their front
seven and new head coach Marvin Lewis is one of the finest
defensive minds in football.
Wouldn’t you think that the SEC schools would all take
up a collection to compel Vandy to hire a black coach? Why
not? Vandy has the lowest redneck quotient in the conference;
therefore it is the one place the boosters would allow it.
In any event, the SEC school that hires the first black coach
will have an enormous recruiting advantage, in case you haven’t
noted the demographic mix of the players in the conference
recently.
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Following the 2000 season Greg Schiano left the Miami Hurricane
staff and the Garden State native took over at Rutgers, calling
it “the best job in the country”. Yes, he really
said that. A couple weeks later Butch Davis left Miami for
the Cleveland Browns and Schiano would have been co-frontrunner
with Larry Coker for the ‘canes job. Schiano could be
24-1 instead of 3-20 heading into the season but for the vagaries
of timing.
It is a steep hill to climb, and with only five offensive
starters back from a team that averaged 14 points and 214
yards last fall, and this weekend could be very unpleasant
as the Scarlet Knights visit Michigan State. MSU coach John
L. Smith is legendary for running up the score when he has
a chance, and folks in the Mountain Time Zone still talk about
a couple of numbers his charges hung when he was at Utah State.
He wasn’t afraid to get what he could at Louisville
either. Now he faces a team in Rutgers that could really bring
out the latent talent in his Spartans. Rutgers is a much worse
team than Western Michigan, a team that Michigan State had
trouble putting away on Saturday. MSU’s superior athleticism
could easily lead to a special teams or defensive TD, making
this line shorter than it appears. Every wise guy in the world
went against Rutgers in their slim cover over Buffalo in their
opener. We think they’re right about the Rutgers prospects
and Michigan State has a coach that won’t hesitate to
make it ugly if he gets a chance to today. Consider laying
the lumber with the Spartans.
I know you hate the guy, and no athlete has ever made more
for doing less, but if ESPN’s Trev Alberts were ugly,
he’d be a superstar. Think about it. He says what he
means. He rips teams, rips people, and at times he knows his
stuff, witness his preseason call of Auburn as the most overrated
team in the country. He’s just too pretty and takes
himself too seriously for his own good. If he was bald, had
a scar on his face, and tossed around a bit of self-depreciating
humor he’d become an icon because people could relate
to him. People can’t relate to a good-looking guy who
made millions for doing nothing who now sits and talks for
a living.
Fans of Cardinals, Orangemen, Yellow Jackets, Zips, and Owls,
have to agree. It’d be great to have a dog as your mascot.
Our favorite current one is the Citadel’s. Check him
out at
http://www.citadel.edu/pao/newsreleases/sy03-04/mascot_puppy.html
Let’s take a look an NFL selection for the weekend.
Big positive vibe for Steve Mariucci's home opener at Ford
Field today. The Lions don't have the talent to compete with
upper echelon teams, but Arizona isn't one of those. Big home
field edge with the new regime that wasn't always there under
Marty. Harrington will improve in his second year with the
coach who developed Jeff Garcia. Cards are excited about Jeff
Blake but he's far from a proven winner and his starting WR's
are Bryan Gilmore and Larry Foster. If your asking "who?"
you're not alone, they combined for 15 receptions last season.
Lions have weaknesses but today they take on a team against
who they enjoy a lot of matchup advantages. Obviously you
have to hold your nose to lay points with the Lions, but they
should come up big this Sunday.
Good luck this weekend. And be careful.
About the Author: Kevin O’Neill
is the director of content for www.ConsumerBet.com.
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