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  A Significant College Rules Change & Looking to Hit it Big In Propville — 8/29/2006
By Kevin O’Neill
Imagine that LSU pulls a very mild upset over Auburn in their early season meeting. Imagine then that they both go undefeated the rest of the way, and LSU wins the SEC Championship game. Imagine that after the loss Auburn goes undefeated and finishes with one loss. Could they then meet in a national championship BCS game? Sure, with both teams sporting 8 home games this year and benefiting in their power ratings from a tough SEC schedule, it is a plausible scenario. Though plausible, of course it is also unlikely, but that’s why you can get better than 800-1 on LSU beating Auburn in the BCS title match or better than 1000-1 on Auburn toppling LSU. Michigan beating Southern Cal is better than 600-1. If turning a few bucks into 10 grand is something you’d like to shoot for this fall, check out what the odds are of your potential BCS title matchups. Click here and visit “NCAA football futures” before Thursday’s kickoffs for this unique and fun prop.

You’ll notice this weekend that the collegian clock is running a lot more than it used to. In an effort to shorten games, the college football clock will run as soon as it is kicked off and as soon as it is spotted after changes of possession, out of bounds plays, and incomplete passes. There is no reversion to the old rules in the final 5 minutes or 2 minutes, so there is little reason for a team to spike the ball at the line anymore, other than to trade a few seconds for a better formation and a chance to call a play at the line (and not huddle). Strategically this will really hurt two-minute offenses and there will likely be less late game drama this year. In addition to having 7 fully analyzed college game selections and 8 system plays in this week’s Maximum Profit Football Annual we discuss 5 influences that this new rule will have on betting the college game. Call to subscribe at 1-770-649-1078 or for more information visit www.FootballAnnual.com and we’ll send a copy of our free annual out to you.

You never want to overreact to the preseason, but if I’m a Redskins fan I’m nervous. The first team is getting blown off the ball on both lines and Mark Brunell is aging before our very eyes, and has not led the starting unit to a single point thus far. Behind him backup Todd Collins has completed 18 passes since 1997. Third stringer Jason Campbell may have been a waste of a first round pick, as the coaching staff has very little confidence in him. Despite having Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams in his backfield, Campbell really struggled in college before Auburn’s brilliant offensive coordinator Al Borges arrived his senior year and put him in a lot of high percentage situations. While the Redskins were widely seen as having executed a coup by keeping Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator, the Skins defense was actually 20 yards per game worse last year than they were the year before. Again, it is only the preseason but folks have got to be nervous inside the beltway.

Before getting to a football pick for you, it has been a rough week in the horse racing world. Breeders’ Cup Classic champion Saint Liam had to be put down after a freak accident being led to his barn. West coast sprinting phenom Lost in the Fog is riddled with cancer and only has a week or two at best. Here’s some fun video from the heartland for you. There is summertime horse racing at the Nebraska State Fair and then the Cornhusker State’s racing moves from Lincoln to a little four-day meet in Omaha at Horseman’s Park, a little 5/8ths of a mile “bullring”. With only four days of racing you can’t expect that there might be a snafu here or there in the operations, but you would think that they’d figure out a way to get the gate out of the way before the horses come around the track. Disaster is narrowly averted on this video….http://www.ketv.com/sports/9555017/detail.html

Let’s look at a football play for you. Over his long tenure, Ken Hatfield did a nice job at Rice but the past couple of years have been disastrous, particularly defensively. The Owls gave up an astronomical 39 points and 441 yards last season. Under new coach Todd Graham they return roughly half their defense. Now Graham has a defensive background (defensive coordinator at Tulsa, co-DC at West Virginia) and at Tulsa worked first hand with Steve Kragthorpe in that reclamation project. But Tulsa’s D has been no prize and Rice simply doesn’t have the horses to be effective defensively. The Owls must enhance their talent level. Even improving the D by a TD and 40 yards leaves them as a 400 yard D giving up over 4½ TD’s per game. Houston and 9th year (at least it seems that way) QB Kevin Kolb are poised to light up the Rice D. Kolb has started 36 straight games for Houston and if, as expected, he has a big senior year, the Cougars will improve on last season’s 28 points and 441 yards per game.

Houston’s defense is no prize, but this 27-point, 397-yard unit from last year should improve with 9 returning starters. And can Rice move the ball at all? They’re going from option to spread under 27-year old offensive coordinator Major Applewhite. No stretch to say that Applewhite was hired for the cache his name has in recruiting the state of Texas as opposed to the work he did as quarterbacks coach at Syracuse, where the QB’s combined for a mere 6 TD passes last year in the nation’s 105th ranked passing offense. Though Rice threw the ball more the past couple of years, it will take some time to turn Hatfield’s option personnel into a cohesive spread offense.

While laying points with a shaky defense should give you reason to pause, the Rice offense may pretty helpless early. Rice is unveiling some stadium improvements but really have no discernable home field edge with Houston brining plenty of fans a mere 6 miles across town. Despite concerns about the ability of favorites to stretch out leads with the new college clock rules, a comfortable 3TD+ win by the Cougars will be no surprise. Houston may be one of the better big favorite plays on the board this week.

Thanks for reading this far. Remember to visit www.FootballAnnual.com to get your 16-page football annual for free and/or to get Sports & Gaming News emailed to you every week during the football season. Good luck and be careful.





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