The Case For Barbaro: Did you see the Kentucky Derby? Barbaro recovered from a stumble out of the gate to chase a lighting fast pace. Staying within three lengths of a 46 second half-mile that proved to be debilitating to the two horses fighting for the lead (they finished 16th and last), Barbaro still had plenty left down the lane. In fact, he exploded in the stretch to a stirring 6½-length victory, with so much run in him that it took an outrider to slow him down far beyond the finish line.

Barbaro was the most impressive horse visually in Churchill Down’s workout sessions, and after viewing the easiest of victories, why look anywhere else? The Preakness has proven to be a very formful race, with the favorite capturing the last five editions. Barbaro has never been beaten. Jockey Edgar Prado has proven to be a master in top-flight stakes races and knows the track well. Prado won 14 jockey titles in Maryland during the 1990’s before moving on to richer circuits.

Barbaro proved himself much the best in this crop by dominating the Derby by the sixth largest margin in the 132-year history of the race. This may prove to be another Preakness where overthinking the race is fatal to your chances. Go with the best horse.

The Case Against Barbaro: Coming back two weeks after the Derby is uncharted territory for this Dynaformer colt that has never had less than 5 weeks between races. In fact, the Derby was just his second race since the Super Bowl. Trainer Michael Matz has done a terrific job managing the horse’s workload thus far, but can Barbaro handle the stress that comes with wheeling back so quickly?

Top challengers Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint both had momentum-busting, traffic-filled trips in the Derby that rendered their bids hopeless. Brother Derek was forced wide throughout and had a horse veer in front of him on the backstretch. He had his efforts further compromised by tossing a shoe in the race. Sweetnorthernsaint, who likes to be near the lead, had to check twice in the first eight of a mile and was far back early.

Though Barbaro is undefeated and his Derby win was by daylight, his previous dirt efforts were far from dominating. Three turf wins don’t matter much when analyzing his dirt performance and he won both the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby by less than a length. Off a huge performance and used to plenty of rest, this horse is plenty eligible to see a significant bounce back to reality in this quick turnaround. And that disappointing performance could occur at a very short price.

Bettor Beware: Some bettors who hit the $587 exacta in the Kentucky Derby were in for a rude awakening when their sports books limited the win to $202 for every $2 bet due to their “nothing more than 100-1” policy on horse payouts. And let’s not even get started with the $11,418 trifecta. And plenty of bettors had plenty of trouble placing exotic wagers with unwieldy software and clueless clerks.

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It is crucially important that Pinnacle doesn’t limit the winnings to $202 for a $2 bet, as the average exacta payout in the Derby the past 5 years has been over $2,500 for that $2 bet. And a lot of people could purchase a small island if they got a rebate of 7% of their total horse action.

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