The worst bets on the entire board are the “multiple choice” bets that have numerous potential winning selections. The sports books build in enormous odds in their favor. While a 14-horse race will have a takeout, depending on jurisdiction, of 15% to 20%, prop bets with a similar number of potential results will typically have a hold for the house of well over 60% and in one instance we found an unconscionable 85%. That’s a profit of 60-85% on every dollar that the house takes in.

Let’s take a couple of examples from an offshore sports book that offers many prop bets at more favorable odds than what is available at many other overseas books and places in Vegas. This website is booking the winner of the MVP award. The wagering starts with Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck each at 5-2 odds, which translates into a probability of 28.5%. It then goes to Shawn Alexander at 3.85-1, which translates into about a 21% chance, and goes all the way down to Bobby Engram at 25-1, which suggests a 3.85% chance. There is also a field bet that pays 6.5-1 (over 13% probability) if one of the 14 listed players doesn’t win.

Add up all the percentage probabilities of those offerings and you’re looking at a total of 167.28%, a hold of a stunning 67.28%. Other props with multiple offerings include a final score prop that offers 14 different options, from Seattle by 1-3 points at 6-1 odds to Seattle by 22+ at 9-1 odds. Pittsburgh by 7-10 is 5-1. Every possible score is covered in one of the 14 options. The percentage probability listed adds up to 164.4%, a 64.4% theoretical hold for the book.

The worst bet of the major offerings at this book is the wagering on the player to score the first TD. Now if Jerome Bettis scores the first TD, they won’t win 85% on their money, because “Bettis returns home” is the major storyline of this Super Bowl and he will be bet heavily. But the 5-1 odds on Bettis certainly understate his actual odds. So do the odds on everyone else. The total percentage probability adds up to 185.4%, an 85.4% theoretical hold for the house.

In very rare circumstances, one of these props could hold some value. For instance, I have, a couple of times, been privy to what the first play was going to be in an NFL game relayed to me by someone who knew the coaches. In both instances it was an unexpected long pass to a particular receiver. Someone with similar information could have a real edge in the first TD prop. If someone knew that a particular receiver was going to be the feature of a game plan, maybe they could have an edge on his getting the MVP award (though the real value would be over the number of receiving yards for that receiver). So yeah, it is possible for one of these props to actually have a little value in extraordinary circumstances. Chances are you’re not dealing with extraordinary circumstances.

There are far better things to be betting on than wagers with a takeouts of between 64% and 85%. Unless you’ve got some great information or peerless analysis, treat these “multiple choice” proposition bets as roughly the equivalent of a state lottery, which they are, and run the other way.

We’ll be back at ConsumerBet.com on Saturday morning with examples of Super Bowl prop bets that give you a fairer shot at having a profitable day. Until then, good luck and be careful.

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