How about those Houston Texans last week? A 4-point dog is up 10 with less than 30 seconds left and the opponent is 4th and 7 at midfield. The opposing QB is a 3rd string rookie QB from Harvard. Absolutely no way the favorite can cover, right? Even after the disastrous TD pass, onside kick, pass downfield, field goal Texans bettors still had to expect the Rams just to kick a field goal, right? Nope. That had to be the absolute worst “bad beat” in NFL wagering history.

There are frequent bad beats in the NFL but last week was the perfect storm for favorite bettors in a 12-4 week for chalk layers. Interestingly, those favorites that went 12-4 to the number were terrible first half bets, going only 6-10 against first half lines. Cowboys, Niners, Texans, Bills, Redskins, and Packers were all tough, tough losses for their supporters.

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The West Virginia/South Florida game, which was to be a really big game before USF’s loss last week, has some odd familiarity to it. South Florida has the second-youngest offensive coordinator in Division 1-A in 32-year old Rod Smith. Smith played his college football for West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez at, of all places, Glenville State, a NAIA school. Smith can’t be pleased with the USF offense, as the Bulls are catching flack from their fans for a poor offensive performance in their critical loss at UConn. The thought that WVU may be flat for this one is a valid one but USF has got to be gravely disappointed at not putting themselves in a position to make this game meaningful. Bulls cornerback Mike Jenkins admits, "It's going to be real tough, because everyone had their sights on coming in [and playing West Virginia] for the Big East championship."

Coach Leavitt signing a bit contract extension for USF provides some positive vibes, but in a game that doesn’t mean very much in the big picture, there is no doubt that WVU is the significantly better team. Rodriguez and the Mountaineers are saying all the right things about going into their BCS game with momentum. They have an opportunity for a very high national ranking if they win this one. The big line move keeps it from being a strong play for us, but believe that far superior West Virginia is the side in this one.

Moving on the NFL. Redskins D has given up 36, 36, and 28 the past 3 games not played in Maryland. Rams are a defensive disaster right now, with injuries riddling the secondary that have contributed to allowing 27, 38, and 31 points in their last 3 games. Their average home game has 56 points scored and even in their one indoor game on the road a total of 73 points were scored in Indianapolis. Even with the shaky situation at QB for the Rams, the lack of quality defense could have this one soaring over the total.

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Have a great weekend. Good luck and be careful.