By Kevin O’Neill
The more money there is in college football,
the worse the pressure gets. Ole’ Miss has had two coaches
in their history deliver career winning records in SEC play.
The stadium is named after one of them. The other one was
fired this week less than a year after culminating a 10-win
season with a Cotton Bowl victory.
There was a lot of buzz this week when Mark Cuban announced
on his blog that he was interested in creating a hedge fund
that would wager on sporting events. If you read his comments
at www.blogmaverick.com
you can see that he’s making that statement as a way
to criticize the financial markets for the paucity of data
and unbiased information available on publicly traded companies
compared to the easy access we all have to sports information.
To the great relief of David Stern, I’m sure, he’s
not serious about the plan to start a betting hedge fund.
Even if Cuban was serious, his hedge fund idea would never
work. You have to realize that over 90% of hedge funds have
over $5 million in assets under management. A bankroll in
that range simply wouldn’t work in sports betting. Based
on the volume you’d have to have a team of people bet
into rapidly moving numbers, often getting the worst of it.
If you won at all you’d get limited, barred, banned,
etc. Winning sports bettors with $5,000 bankrolls are not
welcomed at many sports books and sports books are not in
business to service profitable bettors with $5 million bankrolls.
Diamond Ferri’s stunning performance for Syracuse in
Orangemen’s annihilation of Boston College was simply
the best two-way performance we’ve seen in this era
of football. Talk all you want about Charles Woodson and Deion
Sanders running a few routes as wide receivers, Ferri was
running the ball between the tackles and taking big hits.
The ironman ran for 141 yards and 2 TD’s on 28 carries.
He also had six tackles, returned an interception 44 yards
for a TD, and returned a couple of punts. Ferri was on the
field for over 125 plays, including 80 of the SU’s 86
offensive plays and 15 special teams plays. Ferri was both
the offensive and defensive player of the week in Big East
and the Walter Camp Foundation’s national player of
the week both on offense and defense. Simply remarkable.
Want some proof that there is entirely too much emphasis
put on the NFL draft? Georgia has put a lot of top-notch talent
into the NFL in recent years. Jonathan Sullivan is not one
of them. The overall #6 pick in the NFL draft a couple of
years back was in street clothes on Sunday for the Saints
loss to the Falcons. He wasn’t injured, he was just
inactive, the Saints coaches deciding that he just wasn’t
in a position to buttress their horrendous defense.
My Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service is now
a documented 62-31 (66.7%) against the pointspread in college
and NFL football combined this season. The Sports Monitor
documents our selections, but she doesn’t document teasers,
so our 3-0 NFL Teaser mark is undocumented, but has garnered
additional profits. If you want to get on board with our late
phone service call me at 770-649-1078 to get signed up. Or
call our 24-hour hotline for game analysis and selections
at 770-618-8700. My colleague Dave Fobare has a similar service
at 770-618-8707.
Major League Baseball’s special Sluttiest Wife Lifetime
Achievement Award was claimed by New York Mets’ pitcher
Kurt Benson’s wife Anna. Mrs. Benson, an actress/model/whatever
told a radio interviewer “I told Kris because that's
the biggest thing in athletics, they cheat all the time. I
told him, cheat on me all you want. If you get caught, I'm
going to f$&* everybody on your entire team, coaches,
trainers, players. Everybody would get a turn. If my husband
cheated on me and embarrassed me like that, I will embarrass
him more than he could ever imagine.” No word on whether
the Mets are using this as a selling point in the free agent
wars.
Auburn and Tennessee meet in the SEC Championship game at
6PM EST in Atlanta on Saturday. It will be the first game
for either team on artificial turf this season. Last summer
Georgia Dome’s fast and hard artificial surface was
replaced with the more forgiving field turf. But it is still
something of an adjustment for both teams.
It is worth mentioning that a backup linebacker for Tennessee
is being investigated for his role in a brawl at a nightclub
in Knoxville at 2AM on Wednesday morning. Witnesses reported
approximately 20 football players in attendance and said that
other football players were “stomping” people.
The line on this game came off the board for a short time
in some places. Although Tennessee doesn’t have a reputation
as Discipline U and it is likely that hoops would be jumped
through to keep certain players eligible, the situation bears
watching.
11-0 Auburn is clearly the more accomplished team of the
two. Auburn has the statistical edge in just about every category
you could imagine. Head to head the Tigers mashed the Vols
in Knoxville on October 2 with edges in yardage (400-293)
and turnovers (6-2) leading to the 34-10 Auburn win. Auburn
dominated that game and the score could have been much worse
had the Tigers played less conservatively in the second half.
The two teams have four common opponents (Georgia, Mississippi,
Kentucky, Alabama). Both clubs beat all four opponents, with
Auburn having a bigger margin of victory against each. Auburn
beat the quartet of common foes by a combined 79 points to
a 20-point combined margin of victory for Tennessee.
9-2 Tennessee is down to their third string quarterback and
Auburn has a big edge at that position. Tiger QB Jason Campbell
has had four offensive coordinators at Auburn during his tenure
but he is thriving under Al Borges, going for nearly 10 yards
per pass attempt. Tennessee QB Rick Clausen has had horrible
INT’s thrown under pressure returned for TD’s
against Notre Dame and Kentucky. He’s completed 62%
of his passes in 10 quarters of action since Ainge got hurt,
with 4 TD’s and 5 INT’s. Freshman QB Brett Schaefer
may be healthy enough to play some, but he would be more of
a change of pace.
Not shown in these on-field performance numbers are a couple
of situational advantages for Tennessee. Same season college
football revenge in conference championships and bowl games
is a pretty positive factor. The Vols have also come up big
in games where they appear to have little chance. The Vols
have been a double-digit dog three times in recent years.
In 2001 at Florida, last season at Miami, and this year at
Georgia. In all three games Tennessee didn’t just cover,
they won outright. That’s something to consider despite
the advantages that Auburn has all over the field.
The only team to score more than 14 points against Auburn
this season was Arkansas. But Auburn had a 30-0 lead over
the Hogs midway through the second quarter, and those points
were of the garbage time variety. With national championship
consideration on the line there will be no letup in intensity
on the part of the Tigers today. It is possible, though unlikely,
that a hugely impressive win could catapult them over Oklahoma
if enough voters reverse the two in the rankings if the Sooners
struggle. While we respect Fulmer’s underdog tendencies,
it is tough to see Auburn giving up a lot of points here.
The under may be the way to look in this game as Auburn’s
stellar defense plays with ferocity to the final gun.
In the NFL, where ESPN’s Michael Irvin gives the hardest
hitting interviews with the most challenging questions, let’s
stick with a common theme and look at the total in the Dolphins/Bills
game. This opened 35 and was bet up slightly. Ordinarily you
should look for a team that has played a string of overs to
revert to a low-scoring norm. But when was the last time that
an NFL team that hadn’t played an under in over two
months had a total open up so low in a game not played in
windy Northern climes? Good question, and it speaks to the
difficulty that the public has in accepting the fact that
Miami is playing better offense while their defense isn’t
as good as given credit for. Buffalo’s offense has been
kick started by the emergence of Willis McGahee, who certainly
wants to have a huge game in this homecoming. Look to the
over here.
Thanks for reading us this week. Good luck and be careful.
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