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  MEDIA’S FANTASYLAND FOCUS SKEWS VIEW OF ACTUAL NFL PERFORMANCES
—11/9/2006

By Kevin O’Neill
A good performance for fantasy football and a good performance for your team are often two different animals. Under the “Week 9 top performances” header in Monday's USA Today, Ben Roethlisberger is listed first…as if he had the best passing day of anyone in the league. With his 3 INT’s, he was actually the reason Pittsburgh lost! How could a guy who kept making huge mistakes be credited for the “top passing performance” of the week?

It’s because people look at yardage rather than the impact a guy is really having in the game. Interceptions are huge. Each one cost you about 60 yards in net impact. Some cost you more than that. Picking up yardage between the 20’s may be great for fantasy football. But, it doesn’t much matter if points aren’t going on the scoreboard. You’ve got to subtract out the negatives to get a real sense of a guy’s overall contributions.

Compare Roethlisberger to Drew Brees on the same day. Big Ben, along with his 3 picks, had 16 incomplete passes, 1 TD pass, and led his team to 20 points. Brees was interception-free, tossed only 8 incomplete passes, had 3 TD’s, his team scored 31 points.

Roethlisberger put up a whopping 433 yards in the air. But, if you subtract out 180 yards for the three interceptions…that falls down to 253. A very sharp Brees threw for 314 yards with a great completion percentage. Yet the guy with 314 “impact” yards and 31 points on the board ranked behind the guy with 253 “impact” yards and 20 points on the board in Fantasyland.

Oh, Brett Favre was fifth on the list, even though he single-handedly gave away the Green Bay Packers game in Buffalo with turnovers. Such misinterpretations of QB performances will provide occasional value to bettors who know that mistakes are no tradeoff for empty yards.

Anyone catch injured QB Matt Hasselbeck refers to the Seahawks “high character” wide receivers while introducing them on Monday night? Nice little shot at former teammate Koren Robinson, now with the Packers but a guy who just can’t stay off the suspended list.

Have to wish Joe Paterno a speedy recovery from injuries suffered on the sidelines of the Wisconsin game, as a broken leg and torn knee ligaments are tough injuries to recover from at any age. Ironically, in 1895 Paterno injured Pop Warner’s ankle when making a tackle for Brown near the sideline of Warner’s Georgia Bulldogs. Unfortunately Paterno will miss his first Nittany Lion game since 1977 when Penn State plays Temple Saturday.

All the coverage of the injury helped hide what was another desultory performance for the Nittany Lions. The 13-3 loss to the Badgers was just the latest ugly offensive game for Paterno’s team. In fact, within the last month of action, Penn State gained just 186 total yards versus Michigan, 184 total yards versus Illinois, and 201 total yards versus Wisconsin. They’ve got receivers back who were playmakers last year, but new quarterback Anthony Morelli isn’t getting the ball to them, except against poor defenses. He’s just as erratic now as he was in September. 6-4 PSU is 2-6 to the number in their last 8 outings.

What team was projected by Athlon to have zero wins this season yet has a chance to be bowl eligible? The Rice Owls are 4-5 and though they’re a heavy dog at Tulsa this weekend, home wins over East Carolina and SMU are not out of the question. Rice will be on a lot of “go with” lists in the summer of 2007. September of this year was a bit of a headache as the team was confronted with a killer schedule for new head coach Todd Graham, and new offensive coordinator Major Applewhite. Since losing to Texas and Florida State by a combined score of 107-14, the Owls are 4-1 straight up and ATS. That stretch includes upset wins over Army (+11), UAB (+3), and UTEP (+9). Ironically, Rice lost to Tulane in the only game they were favored to win this year.

LSU outgained Tennessee 478-248 last week but that game was close on the scoreboard due to some LSU errors. They haven’t been making errors at home, blistering opponent after opponent at Tiger Stadium. Bama’s impatient fans don’t want to hear about how the team is still depleted from their probation (back up to full numbers next year) and some are calling for Coach Shula’s scalp after the home loss to Mississippi State. That doesn’t bode well for the Tide’s mindset here. And even with the proper mindset, they probably just aren’t good enough. Alabama gains 5.1 yards per play and allows 5.0. LSU gains 6.7 yards per play and allows 3.8. The Bengal Tigers outshine Bama in both the running and passing games by wide margins. Despite the fact that the Pachyderms have covered 3 times as a road dog this season, Bama could really get blistered here. Go with LSU.

Let’s look at an NFL game for you. Very rarely do teams hold opponents to less than 200 yards yet lose the game. Incredibly, Sunday’s two best defensive efforts were both by losing teams, the two who meet in the Metrodome today. These two teams each held their opponents below 200 yards (Vikings held Niners to 133 yards, Packers held the Bills to 184.) That performance wasn’t exactly an accident either, as both clubs are better defensively than was expected. As the Packers and Vikings come together Sunday, look for this game to stay under the total.

Don’t forget to call our daily hotline for a free selection from colleague Dave Fobare. Dave always has a pick waiting for you for no charge at 1-770-618-8700. Dave doesn’t just post a selection and hang up. You get in-depth analysis on every pick. The kind of analysis you can use for the teams involved in their upcoming games as well. Each report is like a mini-tutorial that can lead to several winners down the road. Now that basketball is underway, you get game-day selections seven days a week.

Thanks for reading Sports & Gaming News this week. If you don’t get this via email than you’re missing out on some occasional special reports that have a lot of value. There will be several such communiqués during the month of November. Visit www.FootballAnnual.com to get that taken care of.

Thanks again for reading. Good luck and be careful.




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2006
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