More college info than pro in a week where the biggest NFL story is the effort to place Drew Bledsoe, Kurt Warner, and Mark Brunell in the same assisted living home. Bill Parcells looked happy Monday night, huh? He had that expression he gets when someone reminds him that he’s never won a Super Bowl ring without Bill Belichick while Belichick has won two without him.

In my first book Football Betting: Strategies for the Smart Player I introduced the term “They’regonnakillemitis” as a condition that afflicts knee jerk favorite bettors. What was true in 1996 remains true today. This time of year there are a lot of bettors who catch “they’regonnakillemitis” due to BCS concerns. Teams in the mix are trying to get their victory margins, of course, but overrating that aspect of college football handicapping led to dramatic last second pointspread failures by Utah and Oklahoma last week. With a line that largely closed at 29½ (though higher in some locales) Oklahoma led Nebraska 30-0 in the game’s final minute. Eschewing a 34-yard field goal attempt, the Sooners threw a short pass on 4th and 8 and the ball was turned over on downs with 33 seconds left.

Was it kind to not to kick the field goal or cruel for Jason White to be throwing a pass? That’s debatable. Meanwhile on the next play fullback Steve Kriewald of Nebraska went for 48 yards on his first run of the season and Nebraska avoided the shutout by kicking a 39-yard field goal at the gun. Nebraska covers the spread in shocking fashion.

Bettors afflicted with “they’regonnakillemitis” were crushed, but it was only the beginning. They still had action on Utah at anywhere from –21 to –24 (remember, these are people who are not smart enough to know that there is an enormous, bet-changing difference between those two numbers). Surely the Utes would beat up on the Cowboys to improve their poll position, wouldn’t they? Sure they would. Utah had the game covered in the first half, with a 31-7 halftime lead. They stretched things out to 48-14 by the time Urban Meyer was doused with Gatorade with 3:30 left. They still held that lead in the final minute of the game. Then disaster struck. Wyoming capped off a drive that included two 4th down conversions with a TD with 46 seconds left. 48-21. Utah fumbles the kickoff. Wyoming recovers. Next play the Cowboys toss a 20-yard TD pass with 34 seconds left. Final score 48-28. Utah bettors? Heartbreak.

So Oklahoma and Utah, two “need to run up the score” BCS teams, both fail to cover in the most excruciating fashion possible. If that isn’t an effective lesson to drum the truth about “they’regonnakillemitis” into knee-jerk favorite players, I don’t know what could be.

Looks like if Utah beats Brigham Young they’re in the BCS, to the great chagrin of the “power conference” schools that created this system to lock out the Utahs of the college football world. The Fiesta Bowl doesn’t mind, as they know that a sea of red will make the trip to Tempe. Meaningless nugget on the ultimate head men in the Utah vs. BYU rivalry. Utah’s president graduated from BYU. BYU’s president is a Utah grad. Insert your own incest/polygamy joke here.

The Vegas 5 gang has been terrific with college plays all year long and have a big weekend planned. Check it out at www.vegas5.com where I’m a contributing handicapper. Also, check out my free hotline by phoning 1-770-618-8700 for gameday analysis and free selections.

Obviously there is a huge controversy involving the BCS title game and the three teams that, barring an upset still to come, belong in the contest. Auburn is a terrific team. Great defense, killer running game, and the most improved QB in the country in Jason Campbell. But if the Tigers are shut out of the Orange Bowl picture, the brass at Auburn will have nobody to blame but themselves. Their three non-conference games were against Louisiana-Monroe, 1-AA The Citadel, and Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech is competitive in the WAC but in their game against Auburn they sat RB Ryan Moats to save him for conference play. They were there simply to pick up a paycheck. Scheduling three home walkovers when you know that strength of schedule is a factor is just plain stupid.

In contrast, Oklahoma and Southern Cal scheduled teams that offer a reasonable challenge. Oklahoma played home games against Bowling Green, Houston, and Oregon, three bowl teams from last year. Southern Cal went to New Jersey to play Virginia Tech at a neutral site overridden with Hokie fans, played at BYU, played Colorado State at home, and host Notre Dame next weekend.

Some power rating analysis suggest very strongly that every non-conference team on the schedules of both Oklahoma and Southern Cal would beat every non-conference team on Auburn’s schedule, and if you take Louisiana Tech’s Moats out of the lineup they would all be favored by at least a TD over all three teams without question. Auburn’s non-conference opponents average 15 points weaker than the median 1-A team. Oklahoma’s non-conference opponents are on average about 3 points stronger than the median 1-A team, Southern Cal’s average about 4 points stronger than the median 1-A team.

It wouldn’t surprise me if in a round robin with Southern Cal and Auburn Oklahoma would go 0-2. But OU faced a greater challenge in conference play this year. The SEC and Pac Ten are weaker than usual, with the Pac Ten unable to muster up enough bowl eligible teams to fulfill their contractual obligations, and the MAC understandably leapt at the chance to take the Pac Ten’s Silicon Valley Classic (does that qualify as criminal misuse of the world “classic”?) slot. In the SEC West Arkansas, LSU, and Mississippi are all considerably weaker than they’ve been the past couple of years, Mississippi State was still awful when they played Auburn early in the year, and in fact lost to Maine the very next week. Alabama has a good defense but are weak at the quarterback position.

While the Big 12 North is absolutely inept, and Oklahoma will be a huge favorite in their conference championship game, the Big 12 South is a killer. OU is one of five teams that have been in the Top 25 for most of the year. OU beat up Texas Tech pretty good at home. They also took the road in their division for wins over Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. They were unquestionably challenged in conference much more than USC and Auburn.

Auburn fans will have a right to be disappointed if they aren’t invited to the Orange Bowl party. But in addition to complaining about the system, blame should be placed on their own athletics department, head coach Tuberville, and anyone else involved in making sure they wouldn’t be forced to break a sweat out of conference.

Of course with all the analysis that can be done, it may come down to voters keeping Oklahoma out just because they were lucky to be included last year. Great system you’ve got, BCS.

One aspect of the BCS remains shrouded in secrecy. By a 31-30 count coaches voting in the ESPN/USA Today coaches poll voted to have their ballots remain secret. Remember that when your conference opponent gets into the BCS, that gets your school some cash due to revenue sharing arrangements in most conferences. How many recruiting grudges are acted upon in the balloting? No way for us to know for now.

We had an odd situation in my office this week. Strategic Sports Publishing college plays are released late in the day on Fridays, enabling clients to get down early, play at reduced juice, get free half points, etc. After releasing UCLA +6½ on Friday afternoon the line soared as high as +10 on Saturday morning. Turns out Oregon was someone’s “Game of the Year” and a lot of people jumped on the bandwagon. You hate to lose line value like that but it worked out for the best when UCLA won outright. I don’t have “Games of the Year” because I know what people do with those things and as seen in the Utah and Oklahoma examples last week, any game can lose, no matter how dominant the team is. My Strategic Sports Publishing handicapping service is still hitting at better than 70% in college football on the full season and is winning in the NFL as well (a little under 57% with the pros), with those records fully documented by The Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City. If you want someone to guide you through Thanksgiving and beyond, providing you with thoroughly researched football selections that are proven to win, call my office at 1-770-649-1078 for rates and details. Sign up for a month and we’ll give you this weekend for free as a pre-Thanksgiving special.

In his press conferences Lou Holtz is sending all the signals in the world that he might be drifting towards retirement. As we reported last week, rumors have been rampant all fall in the Palmetto State that the Old Ball Coach will be coaching the Gamecocks next year, and Steve Spurrier seems to be a good fit. USC has the facilities, the money, the fan base, and the golf. Wouldn’t the OBC’s annual SEC East battle with the Gators be a spectacle?

Pitt quarterback Tyler Palco became the first player ever to throw for five TD’s against Notre Dame. The Panthers sealed their 41-38 win with a field goal with one-second left. In a live postgame interview with NBC Palco said, “I’m so proud of this f*#%ing team.” Play by play man Tom Hammond did an admirable job of damage control with two separate apologies, highlighting the emotion of a last second win, looking like he wanted to throw up, etc. Palco apologized later on, and seemed legitimately contrite.

I mentioned my first book in the opening, but in the new issue of Cigar Aficionado (the one with Bill Murray on the cover) my new book Real World Sports Betting: How Real People Make Real Money in the Global Sports Marketplace is featured in an article highlighting seven books for the serious gambler. The book sells for $34.95 plus postage and handling. I’ll sell it to you for $22 and pay for the postage. Call my office at 1-770-649-1078 to order or visit www.realworldsports.com to read a review of the book.

Louisville has shown some chinks in their defensive armor lately and has absolutely nothing to play for in their game at Houston. In a bizarre “anything for TV money” scheduling oddity, this is Louisville’s first Saturday game since October 2nd, which could leave the Cards feeling out of rhythm today. The Ville have wrapped up the Conference USA crown and are Liberty Bowl bound no matter what. Houston has had a disappointing year but Art Briles is a solid coach and motivator and the Cougars will have the proper mindset here. Look for enough wrinkles from Briles in this game to boost the sagging UH offense. The Cougars are a disappointing but will look to redeem themselves here. This is a giant number for the Cardinals to be laying considering they are on the road and haven’t an ounce of motivation. Go with Houston.

Let’s look at a late afternoon NFL contest for Sunday. Seattle is averaging 28 points per game at home. They are simply a much better team on their home field and the offense really clicks. So do you look for a high scoring game here? Nah. Can’t possibly do so. Not with poor offense/ good defense Miami in town. We’re going to buck that conventional wisdom and look for the Dolphins to do their part to get us to an over. Believe it or not, Miami hasn’t played an under since October 3rd. The defense has been falling apart lately. After allowing 17 points or fewer in their first four games the Dolphins have allowed on average over 24 points per game in their last five affairs. Seattle’s D is no prize either. The Seahawks have allowed 23 points or more in five of their last six games. There should be more scoring than expected. Whether Hasselbeck (bruise above the knee) plays or not, go with the over in Seattle.

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