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  FESTIVAL OF FAVORITES AS CHALK ROLLS IN NFL. GUTSY COACHING CALL OR COMMON SENSE?— 11/11/2005
By Kevin O’Neill
Before getting to less important matters, Veteran’s Day greetings to those of you who made the sacrifices to bravely serve us in the military. Godspeed to those serving so honorably in the current conflicts as well. They are doing tremendous work. As Bruce Willis said on MSNBC after a trip to the Middle East, “I am baffled to understand why the things that I saw happening in Iraq, really good things happening in Iraq, are not being reported on.”

Although Alabama’s offense has been struggling, QB Brodie Croyle showed his leadership on Saturday. When senior center JB Closner broke his leg in the Mississippi State game Croyle rode back to Tuscaloosa in the ambulance with him. True freshman Evan Cardwell may have to blow his redshirt season, as he is now Bama’s backup center. When Bama WR Tyrone Prothro broke his leg in the Tide’s big win over Florida it wasn’t a “slap on the cast and go home” kind of injury. The severity of the fracture and a subsequent infection kept Prothro in the hospital for 26 days.

What’s so gutsy about Dick Vermeil going for the TD on the last play of the Chiefs/Raiders game from the 1? From a probability standpoint it is a no-brainer to go for 1 yard. Though home teams are slightly more likely to win in overtime, any NFL team should take the opportunity to score from the 1-yard line over overtime at the conclusion of a game. It ain’t swashbuckling risk taking, it is plain old common sense. Getting a yard has a higher probability of occurring than winning in the overtime does.

Down 7 and facing 4th down inside the Redskins 10 with 1:32 to go, the Eagles call a time out to discuss their options. Donovan McNabb doesn’t go over to the sideline to talk to the offensive staff. The Redskins proceeded to call timeout after seeing the Eagles alignment, and McNabb again doesn’t go over to the sideline. Not sure if this is de rigueur for the Eagles, but I can’t remember ever seeing a quarterback not on the sideline having input after a timeout before a critical play. Call 770-618-8700 for free weekend football previews on a recorded 24-hour voice broadcast. And visit www.Vegas5.com, where the combined efforts of ASA, Nelly’s Sportsline, Tom Stryker, Al McMordie, and yours truly have had a very good year.

In 39 minutes of action in a Wednesday night win over Memphis, the Celtics’ Mark Blount had one single rebound. Blount is 7 feet tall. Although they have roared to an undefeated mark against teams with a combined record of 21-38, it appears that the Colts really are that much better. While many are attributing their 40-point performance against the Patriots on Monday night to the absence of Tyrone Poole and Richard Seymour and the departure of Ty Law from the Patriots defensive corps, none of those three played when Indianapolis was held to 3 points in the AFC playoffs in Foxboro last January.

Indy’s win took the record for NFL favorites on the weekend to 11-2-1 against the spread. Favorites covered every teaser, with the exception of Jacksonville merely pushing the 6-point teaser (though covering all other teasers) in their 7-point win against the Texans. Discounting pushes, favorites are a remarkable 50-28 against the spread since the third week of the NFL season.

Texas Tech is 33-20 (62.2%) against the number in their last 53 games and thus far this season it has been bombs away for the Red Raiders when playing a team that they simply outclass. No question that they outclass Oklahoma State. Switching offensive systems under new head coach Mike Gundy, OSU’s decline in offensive production was to be expected. But the Cowboy defense has been a huge disappointment as well. In conference play Oklahoma State has allowed 34, 38, 37, 62, and 47 points and are ill suited to slow down Mike Leach’s highly consistent offensive system. Despite fitting in rather snugly with numerous contrarian and revenge angles, Okie State could really get lit up by a Red Raider club that gets to the number with great frequency.

The Rams/Seahawks total has zoomed up all the way to 51. Last month Seattle won a shootout 36-30 and that usually leads to lower scoring the next meeting, as the defenses look to clamp down. Last season in October these two played to a total of 60 and then scored a combined 35 points a month later. Considering that the 3-day forecast in Seattle calls for this game to be played with temperatures in the high 40’s, rain, and 14MPH winds, looking under this high number makes some sense.

Next week we’ll examine how bookies battle bettors, and how the idea of getting balanced action on games is a myth. We hoped to take a look at that this week, but handicapping took precedence. Don’t miss an issue of Sports & Gaming News. Get this emailed to you each week with a visit to www.consumerbet.com/email.html. Remember we value your privacy and don’t sell or rent your email address, we’ll just use it to send you our updates, so hit that link right now and register to get this valuable information for free.

Have a great weekend. Good luck and be careful.




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