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RECIPE FOR SUCCESS: UNIQUE THINKING, UNIQUE FACTORS

By Kevin O’Neill
www.consumerbet.com

Is there a more selfish, me-first NFL player than Corey Dillon? When Dillon broke the NFL’s single game rushing record in 2000 with 278 yards he showed great emotion, collapsing in tears on the bench. The win that day improved the Bengals record to 1-6. Cincinnati is only a half-game out of first place in the weak AFC North under their ultra-sharp new head coach Marvin Lewis. The franchise is finally showing some signs of life. Dillon, who had suffered through a 26-70 record under the Bengals this season, must be thrilled to see his team finally headed in the right direction, right? Not exactly. Dillon this week said he is not being used properly by the coaches and wouldn’t mind a trade, commenting, “I would prefer to be somewhere that I’m appreciated.”

After being turned down by the ACC this summer, Boston College athletic director Gene Defilippo wrote the following in a letter to BC fans and boosters: "Our focus now is to make the Big East Conference as strong as it can possibly be. We are thinking big, and the future of our conference and BC Athletics is very bright." Now that Defilippo and BC President Rev. William P. Leahy have turned their back on the Big East reconstruction plan they helped create, the wisdom of their decision, as can their ethics in displaying a commitment to the Big East. BC, a founding Big East conference member, has reneged on their word and skipped out on their conference brethren. The BC brass has effectively eliminated the age-old collegiate tradition of road tripping to games. Maryland, a 7-hour drive from Chestnut Hill, is the only ACC school within an 11-hour one way drive for BC folks who wish to see their teams compete for 6th in the conference in their good years in football and basketball. The Eagles will be outclassed in many other sports as well. Travel costs for all of BC sports will skyrocket. If the ACC isn’t placing two teams in the BCS each year (the conferences that have two BCS slots tend to have a potential second BCS club knocked out in the championship game) the revenues may not flood into the BC coffers as expected.

You think Kit is wild and unpredictable? What about Dennis Rodman: rebounder, craps player, boozer? Rodman picked up a DUI out in California last week and we can only wonder how he has not yet become a reality TV show. Why is Nevada not longer the sports betting capital of the world? Find out in the article entitled “No Mas. Why Nevada Gave Up the Title of Sports Betting Capital of the World to the Offshore Heavyweights Without a Fight” at www.consumerbet.com.

Don’t automatically project the Atlanta Falcons to perk up when Michael Vick comes back. The Falcons under Dan Reeves have had a lot of quit in them in seasons where things went sour. The Falcons were poor in 1999, 2000, and 2001 and often times bad teams have a lot of pointspread value down the stretch. Not this club. The Falcons in those three years were 6-16-2 against the spread in the second half of the season. Dan Reeves has led some overachieving teams, but has certainly had trouble motivating his players once they fell out of the race in recent years. While Vick should create some energy, he can’t play defense, and the Falcons “stop unit” is allowing a flabbergasting 31 points and 417 yards per game.

A couple of studies crossed the desk this week that, as people interested in gaining an edge using probability and statistical indicators, should interest to all of us. The American Institute of Physics did a study of the World Series that show that the Fall Classic is much more likely to go seven games than is statistically likely. According to the physics mavens, the past 50 World Series have gone seven games 48% of the time and six games only 20% of the time, despite calculations of the Institute indicating that such a series should go the full seven games 31.25% of the time and six games an identical 31.25%. The problem with their research is their assumption that each game in a World Series is a 50/50 tossup, which is a horribly flawed assumption. Are you making decisions on legitimate data?

A fascinating and creative financial indicator that we discovered this week was a report from the Chicago forecasting firm GKS&T that indicated that U-Haul rates provide the earliest and most accurate gauge as to the future economic fortunes of an area. It costs $1,080 to rent a 26-foot U-Haul for a move from Los Angeles to Las Vegas, but only $133 for the reverse move. San Francisco to Boise is $2,024, while Boise to San Francisco costs only $310. As most cities are roughly similar in cost to move between, there is clearly a serious problem getting replacement U-Hauls to California as people flee the state. The U-Haul rate indicator shows what is happening right now while the economists sit around waiting for their personal income stats and other indicators to be reported. What does this have to do with sports handicapping and betting? Nothing. And everything. Obviously the economic forecast for an area does nothing for us in predicting how the likely outcome of a sporting event relates to the value of a pointspread, but you can find a meaningful indicator of performance ahead of the crowd you can gain a big edge.

TV sideline interviewess Michelle Tafoya dumped beer on some fellow attendees of the Michigan/Minnesota game two weeks ago in the Metrodome. Tafoya, who lives in the Twin Cities area, was not working but rather was watching the game in a luxury suite. She used the suds to settle an argument between people in her suite and some fans below. To her credit, Tafoya was contrite following the incident. No truth to the rumors that her sideline reports will now be sponsored by Budweiser and she will carry a six pack to defend herself from heckling fans. At least it was a more pleasing liquid to release on those below you than her colleague Gary Miller unleashed on some policeman in Cleveland several years ago.

Just in case you’re ever tempted to take the New York Times computer rankings seriously, Notre Dame is ranked 24th this week. Those rankings carry about as much weight as the opinions of their editorial board, which editorialized against their hometown New York Yankees. The Times pulled for a Red Sox series win without mentioning that the New York Times is a part owner of the Red Sox.

The opening total in the Texas Tech game at Missouri is 77½. A Big 12 game at 77½! The fewest total points scored in a Tech game so far this season is 68. The scoring has been getting more pronounced as the Lubbock Arena League entrant’s season goes on, with total points scored of 68, 70, 70, 94, 87, 73, and 100. Tech coach Mike Leach is the definition of the “no conscience” play caller and with all the quick strikes, first downs, and incomplete passes stopping the clock Tech’s game at Stillwater had an obscene 168 running and passing plays last week. That’s a lot of opportunities to score and doesn’t even include kicking plays, which can turn into returns that drive the score up even further. Tech faces a Missouri team this week with a lot of offensive weapons and one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country in Brad Smith. Mizzou has been struggling defensively, allowing their last four opponents an average of 33 points per game, a number that could have been even higher had Oklahoma not sat on their lead to the tune of a 3-point second half after notching 31 points in the opening half last week. It certainly isn’t the value side, but we’re going to take a gander at the over in this one anyhow, especially now that the line has dropped to 75.

Our phone service (Strategic Sports Publishing) is 60% so far this season in both college and NFL football (as released to all clients and monitored by the Sports Monitor of Oklahoma City) so far this season. Our 7 to 8 page weekly newsletter The Maximum Profit Football Weekly (sent by email or fax only) offers 11 detailed selections each week, 3 or 4 unique systems along with the games they apply to each week, and a handicapping/wagering article each week. It is unique as we actually cover issues of interest to the bettor, not just the football hobbyist. Our NFL selections in The Max are 46-23-4 (66.7%) against the spread since the issue released last October 28th. If you’re interested in either our newsletter or our phone service, call us in the office at 1-770-649-1078 and ask about our special “through the Super Bowl” discount offers. You can also call our free selection phone at 1-770-618-8700 for picks and analysis. Maybe even some Breeders’ Cup stuff on there this weekend.

In the Max recently we’ve run a couple of articles about statistical projections and how rushing yardage is often influenced more than people realize by the quality of quarterbacking play in a certain game. Virginia Tech was averaging 5.8 yards per rush on offense and giving up only 3.1 YPR defensively. West Virginia was gaining 4.5 yards per rush and giving up 4.0 yards per rush. Virginia Tech also had better yards per pass differentials as well. So how did West Virginia outrush Virginia Tech 264-68 (4.5 YPR to 2.2 YPR)? Three reasons. The stats were skewed by a tougher schedule for WVU, with Wisconsin, Maryland, Miami-FL all better than anything Tech had played. Stats can’t account for one team being fired up while Tech seemed to be looking ahead to Miami.

Was the pepper spray really necessary at West Virginia? Were the goal posts that valuable? But on the other hand, maybe some temporary pain for a few folks is better than a permanent injury from the falling posts. The “Best Goal Post Management” award goes to Iowa. Kinnick Stadium features hinged goalposts that stadium staffers can collapse in seconds at the conclusion of a game. The crowd then runs on the field to celebrate, with no big “goal” to shoot for and nothing to

Chris Chandler is by no means the future, but at least he gives the Bears a higher level of competency at quarterback than the pathetic Kordell Stewart. The Bears certainly have the QB edge over Detroit, as Joey Harrington and Mike McMahon combined for 10-33 for 81 yards and 3 INT’s in their 37-7 shellacking at the hands of Dallas. Be nice to have a Charlie Batch on hand, wouldn’t it? The Lions offense didn’t score, as their only TD vs. the Cowboys was a defensive return. The Bears played well in Seattle and while not a good team; we look for them to improve over the next few weeks. Can’t say the same for a Lions group that is averaging fewer than 12 points per game since their bizarre high scoring opening win against Arizona. The Lions are a letdown situation for most teams they play. For Chicago they’re an important game, as they’re one of the Bears few shots at a win. Bears take this one.

Thanks for taking the time to read us. Good luck and be careful.

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Kevin O’Neill is the director of content for www.consumerbet.com. His 24-hour free telephone selection hotline can be accessed by calling 1-770-618-8700.

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