By Kevin O’Neill
Look, I’m as appalled by Stuart Scott
as anyone, but when he says “Najeh Davenport is number
two on the depth chart” I laugh every time. How bad
is the NBA’s Eastern Conference? In futures betting
for the Atlantic Division the Celtics are the favorite, with
the Knicks the second choice.
My wife has a theory we call “Athletes Who Marry High
Profile Women Hit the Skids Factor” (catchy, huh?).
Pete Sampras marries that actress chick? Wimbledon dominator
to can’t win a match in no time flat. Nomar Garciaparra
hooks up with Mia Hamm? Suddenly he’s giving emotional
tirades about the state of women’s soccer to the media
a half hour before game time and he turns into a sullen locker
room malcontent. For a graphical representation of Tiger’s
relationship and the influence it had on his golfing performance
check out the chart that Fox Sports Radio’s Steve Czaban
offers here: http://www.czabe.com/images/snicky/snicky183-1.jpg
.
The BCS rankings, set to be unveiled on Monday, just missed
a major shakeup with Louisville’s near-miss at Miami
Thursday night. The ‘Ville coach Bobby Petrino made
himself a lot of money in the 37-34 loss, as there are likely
to be other big program runs at the guy who scored a huge
new contract after Auburn’s sleazy run at him last December.
Barring a major upset USC and Oklahoma will be 1-2 when the
rankings are released. History has shown that could be bad
news for the Trojans and Sooners because since the birth of
the BCS in 1998, the two teams that topped that years initial
rankings have never gone on to meet in the title game. With
SC and OU seemingly over their biggest hurdles, that trend
could go by the wayside this year. But…………..
Oklahoma faces tough Oklahoma State in Stillwater, the only
ranked opponent on their schedule the rest of the way. Their
trip to College Station to take on resurgent A&M will
be no walkover. Assuming they win the division, the Big 12
title game will likely feature the Sooners as a deserving
huge favorite. Missouri’s 30-10 win Saturday over lowly
Baylor marked the first time in 7 tries this season that a
team from the Big 12 North division defeated a team from the
South. With Kansas State reeling and Nebraska a shadow of
its former self, Missouri seems to be in the drivers seat
for a trip to the Big 12 Championship. This for a squad that
couldn’t even handle Troy State.
Our Strategic Sports Publishing late telephone service had
a nice winner on the aforementioned Louisville Cardinals Thursday
night, taking our college football record to a documented
22-5 pointspread mark (82.5%). Our off-season research is
really paying dividends. If you’re not interested in
a late phone service you might be interested in our newsletter,
which is 38-19-2 (66.7%) on the season. Subscribers receive
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After dispensing a brilliantly coached California club, USC
is not without challenges, as they host undefeated Arizona
State on Saturday and then 2 rival games versus Notre Dame
and UCLA to cap the year. If they both run the table, the
BCS potentially faces further scrutiny being there are a host
of other unbeaten clubs looming on the horizon like Miami,
Auburn, Virginia, Purdue, Wisconsin and even Utah. Can’t
you just hear the uproar now if 3 or more teams are 11-0 in
early December?
We’ve often examined the relationship of pointspread
performance to college football fan outrage (call it the Tommy
Bowden factor). Ron Zook’s 2-11-1 ATS record as a conference
favorite doesn’t help his cause with Florida alumni;
it just pushes the temperature on his hot seat to 3-Mile Island
level. Speaking of short honeymoons, think the folks in Lincoln
are pining for a return to the Frank Solich Era? Despite 58
wins in 6 years, Solich was shown the door and the keys to
the Big Red Machine were turned over to Bill Callahan. Callahan’s
new West Coast offense has been a disaster and Nebraska is
left searching for answers fresh off a 70-10 embarrassment
at the hands of Texas Tech – the worst defeat in the
Huskers storied 114-year history. Nebraska committed 7 more
turnovers and has a whopping 18 in 5 games, as their option
personnel struggle in the West Coast offense.
With all due respect to Oklahoma Super Frosh Adrian Peterson
and Cal triggerman Aaron Rogers, the top performance of the
week may have come from Oregon QB Kellen Clemons. While most
fans were riveted on any of the 6 “Showdown Saturday”
tilts, Clemons was a one man wrecking crew, torching Washington
State in a 41-38 barn burner won by the Ducks. Clemons hit
on 36 of 55 passes for 437 yards. He also accounted for all
6 Duck TD's -- 3 passing and 3 running including the game
winner with 81 seconds left. What a day!
Let’s take a look at an ugly play on Saturday. Georgia’s
surprising loss to Tennessee puts them in rough shape in the
SEC’s Eastern Division, as the Vols have now beaten
both Florida and Georgia and have the inside track to the
SEC Championship game. Georgia, ranked 3rd before the Tennessee
loss, have now dropped to 12th and no longer control their
own destiny. For all their talent and coaching, the Bulldogs
have played only one good game all year, their double revenge
annihilation of LSU. Georgia simply hasn’t come out
firing and injuries are beginning to mount for the Bulldogs,
especially on the offensive line. Starting guards Nick Jones
and Dennis Roland both have sprained ankles. Jones will miss
this game and Roland is questionable. Centers Russ Tanner
and Ryan Schnetzer are getting practice time at guard this
week, and the shuffling of the offensive line cannot be good
for the Bulldogs. This has been a road-dominated series and
the home team is only 2-10 ATS the past 12. This trend makes
sense, as Vandy is not a big game for Georgia and leads to
a dull atmosphere in Athens while Georgia usually has as many
fans in the stands in Nashville as host Vanderbilt. After
being sky high for consecutive games against LSU and Tennessee
the crowd likely won’t bring their A-game and BCS contenders
historically perform poorly spreadwise off their first loss
(how about Fresno losing straight up to UTEP?).
Vandy has some issues of their own, namely blowing a 24-point
lead at home against Rutgers. A horrible illegal forward pass
call hurt Vandy in the closing seconds, taking away a big
gainer to the Rutgers 10 when Vandy QB Cutler was clearly
behind the line of scrimmage. This experienced team (20 retuning
starters) expected to contend for a bowl but are now 1-4 on
the season. They may take some motivation from their potential
spoilers role here. The points are likely worth taking, as
Richt just hasn’t had his teams dominate games in this
spread range. But keep in mind that Vandy has not finished
strongly. The ‘dores have blown 2nd half leads against
Mississippi, Navy, and Rutgers and have been shredded in the
4th quarter of their games by a combined 51-7. Georgia has
struggled out of the box in every game but LSU, so a first
half bet on Vandy may be a better play than the full game
option.
Pardon the cliché, but a big hearty salute goes out
to Army this week. It is one thing to snap the nations longest
losing streak at 19 games, but quite another to do it as more
than a 2 touchdown dog (+ 600 ML). The Cadets continue to
give up yards by the bushel full (over 520 a game), but they
piled up 554 of their own against shameful Cincinnati. RB
Tielor Robinson struck paydirt 5 times. From the police blotter,
your weekly entry of players running afoul of the law centers
on Chapel Hill this week as UNC has suspended 3 prominent
players for, you guessed it.........possession of marijuana.
Fresh off an upset win of arch rival NC State, the Heels face
a difficult road game this week at 10th ranked Utah minus
their top tackler, LB Fred Sparkman (isn't that name just
priceless) and 2nd leading receiver Adarius Bowman. They may
need a bit of that contraband to numb the pain after facing
the feisty Utes.
Speaking of wacky weed, check out this hysterical Ricky Williams
travelogue: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/story/240365p-206183c.html.
For something that shatters a lot of despicable lies and
myths, check this out:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34167-2004Oct14.html
.
It felt like Gus the Kicking Mule tried to boot you through
the uprights from 70-yards out if you bet either the Seahawks
or the Cardinals last week. Seattle (- 7) hadn't lost at home
in 10 straight and came into the week with the top ranked
defense. Coasting at 27-10, St Louis ripped off 17 points
over the final 5 1/2 minutes to tie and then win it on a 50-yard
bomb 3 minutes into OT. Ugh!! Zona (+1) was staring at back-to-back
wins and seemingly had San Fran put away at 28-12 into the
4th quarter. But the Cards being the Cards allowed Frisco
to slip off the hook with 2 late TD's and a pair of 2 pointers
before winning in overtime. Typical Zona. While we weren’t
involved in either of the full games, we did suffer some halftime
heartbreak as a result of the histrionics in Seattle. By the
way, if our Gus the Kicking Mule comment hits a little close
to home, maybe you ought to bet less or find a new hobby.
Who says it takes time to groom a young quarterback in today's
NFL? Ben Rothliesberger has Pittsburgh in a frenzy and thinking
back to the days of The Steel Curtain and Bradshaw. Big Ben
has now won his first 3 starts as a rookie thanks to another
very strong outing (16/21, 231 yards 1 TD, TD rush) in a 34-23
win over Cleveland. Only 2 other QB's, Phil Simms and former
Steeler Mike Kruczek have ever begun their career with more
wins than the Miami-OH rook. Thanks to Rothliesberger and
a rushing attack ranked in the top 6 after being 31st in 2003,
the Steelers are 4-1 and folks around The Burgh are thinking
big. FA Duce Staley has 3 straight 100-yard rushing games.
While he may be one of the biggest, most overbearing SOB's
to come down the pike in quite a while; you have to give credit
where it is due with Tom Coughlin. Widely panned as one the
NFL doormats coming into the season, Coughlin has the Giants
sitting at 4-1 thanks to his hard-nosed, disciplined approach.
Offensively, New York is racking up 364 yards/gm., and has
churned out 7 TD's on the ground as part of the 5th best rushing
attack in football. They only had 6 rush TD's in all of 2003.
Most importantly, Coughlin's discipline has helped keep turnovers
to a minimum (4) when NY was next to last in 2003 with 38.
The Big Blue is also getting it done on defense, forcing 18
turnovers, which is tops in the league. They've also yet to
yield to a single score on the ground. Heading into the bye
NY has won 4 straight against the number including 3 outright
W's as a dog. You'd have to say Drill Sergeant Coughlin is
on the early A-list for coach of the year candidates.
Sunday's Texans/Vikings shootout may have been a showcase
of two of the NFL's premier offenses for years to come. The
teams combined for over 900 yards with young studs David Carr
and Duante Culpepper doing most of the damage through the
air (764). Carr and wide-out Andre Johnson should have DB's
quaking in their boots for at least the next decade. And while
he does have the most dynamic performer in football in Randy
Moss as a mate, Culpepper is vying with Peyton Manning for
early MVP honors. Pepper has a league high 72.7 completion
percentage and has but 1 pick thus far. In just 4 games, he
already he has a 4 TD and 5 TD pass performance and has 13
on the year --- 2nd to Manning's 14. Of course the defenses
of both teams have a bit of shoring up to do.
We've talked often about the ever-increasing parity around
the NFL. Since the salary cap was instituted, it’s given
the old saying "any given Sunday" a literal meaning.
Just look at the numbers. Through 5 weeks, only 5 of 74 games
have been decided by more than 20 points, and 2 of those came
just this week. At the same point last year 21 games had final
margins of 20+. Conversely, 22 games already this season have
been decided by a scant 4 points or less. I know league brass
loves parity, but 2004 is taking things to a whole new level.
Finally, you know your season is rotten to the core when
your highlight moment involves your special teams ace. Miami's
Wes Welker pulled of the rarest of daily doubles in Sunday's
24-10 loss to New England. Subbing for injured kicker Olindo
Mare, Welker booted a 3rd quarter 29 yard FG that actually
pulled the Dolphins within 2 scores. In addition to his kicking
chores, Welker also served as the kickoff and punt return
man. No NFL player had performed all of those duties in the
same game since way back in 1967, which also happens to be
the last time Miami was 0-5. With a total as low as 30, the
Dolphins game in Buffalo this week is the lowest non-weather
total in memory. But doesn’t the quarterbacks and defenses
in this matchup just scream “Defensive Touchdown”?
Hold your nose and play the over.
Thanks for taking the time to read S&G News this week.
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