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  WHINING ABOUT TOUGH LOSSES AND SUPPOSED “BAD LUCK” GETS YOU NOWHERE. —10/12/2006
By Kevin O’Neill
We had another winning weekend on our late phone service last weekend, but several of my customers (who are a very savvy group in an industry where most people’s customers are complete lunkheads) overreacted to one of the losses. The loss was with Kansas +2 over Texas A&M. Kansas controlled the game for much of the way but failed to execute a 3rd and 1 that would have come close to putting the game away. After punting, they allowed Texas A&M a TD drive to go ahead 1 followed by the 2-point conversion to win by 3 in the game’s final minute. I received a surge of emails and phone messages following the game about what an unjust loss it was and how we deserved better. While it is tough to lose a game late, that’s why they play the 4th quarter. It’s part of the game and it counts. And we’re talking about a game where even before the final drive, A&M had outgained Kansas (finishing with better than a 100+ yard advantage) and the Aggies converted 20 first downs to only 10 for the Jayhawks. Did I like seeing the A&M tight end sky for the fingertip 2-point catch on a play with no truly open receivers? Of course I didn’t. But they play a full 60 minutes and the Aggies were the better team in the entire span of play. Despite the early lead, we were not necessarily on the right side with Kansas in a game that could have gone either way and we lost.

Was it difficult to lose with Kansas? Sure. I wasn’t terribly pleased with the final minute of that game. But you need to brush yourself off and move on to the next play. The worst thing in the world is to credit yourself for lucky wins while ruing your “luck” when the breaks go against you. The late Pete Axthelm of Newsweek/NBC/Inside Sports/ESPN fame would say that you’re angering “Goddess of Wagering”. What’s really happening is that your critical thinking and decision-making skills go out the window and your handicapping and betting both suffer.

The lessons here? First, be honest when determining how just a wagering result really is. Secondly, when you’re unlucky realize it is part of the game and those things will even out over time. Finally, when a result is lucky, determine why your analysis was off base. Use that analysis as a way to improve instead of just accepting your dumb luck.

The Oakland Raiders are clearly the worst team in the NFL. The Raiders sport a couple of statistics that are eye-poppingly bad. Offensively, the Raiders average only 4.2 yards per pass attempt, which is positively dreadful passing efficiency and trails the rest of the league by a substantial margin. To compare, the next worst is Atlanta at 5.1 yards per pass attempt. Giving up 29 yards per game on 5 sacks (both league worsts) hurt the Raiders here, as that yardage is counted against passing yardage, unlike in college football, where it is counted as negative rushing yardage.

On defense, the Raiders simply give up too much too easily. Opponents of the Silver & Black need to gain an average of only 10.4 yards to score a point, worst in the league by a full yard and a half. -2 turnovers per game (once again, worst in the league) hurts their efficiency numbers. This is simply a very bad team right now. And with Randy Moss and Warren Sapp not exactly known for cheery, can-do attitudes in adversity, the young players around them might not learn everything there is to learn about professionalism and playing out the season with some pride.

We’ve been unimpressed at times with Arkansas’ Springdale High School offense (offensive coordinator Malzahn has never coached above the high school level before this year), but obviously they had their day at Auburn. If you missed the video of how they set up their trick play, check it out at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LukZ4I0tscE . What’s most impressive is the way they hid the little back behind the tightly bunched linemen coming out of the huddle. Good show.

With Coach Hoeppner back from another brain surgery (hopefully for good) and key players returning back from injuries. Indiana plays hard. In their 17-point loss in Iowa City last year they outgained the superior Hawkeyes 446-425. Iowa not at their best as road chalk. After falling behind 25-7 in the second quarter, the upset 34-32 win at Illinois last week showed a lot of fight out of the Hoosiers and they can hang around for a little while against an Iowa team that doesn’t brandish the offense many of us expected them to enjoy. Indiana’s Marcus Thigpen may be the best player you’ve never heard of. He already has 3 kickoff returns for touchdowns this year. This is not the esteemed Kirk Ferentz’s best role, as Iowa is 0-6 to the number as a road favorite since the start of the 2004 season. Take the big points with the hard-trying Hoosiers.

Our colleague Dave Fobare is doing a splendid job with his handicapping. Check out the hotline for Dave’s free analysis at 1-770-618-8700. The hotline is a free 24-hour service that will provide you with valuable information from a hard working handicapper, so call regularly.

Titans played in a surprising 14-13 tight loss at the Colts, and a surprising number of times a team that plays in an extremely low scoring game bounces back to play a higher scoring game. And that game wasn’t the absolute slugfest it appeared to be, as there were 597 yards of total offense. Vince Young will be tough to defend at times and he is more likely to make mistakes that are returned for TD’s than a more experienced QB would. The Redskins were offensive masters for a couple of weeks but gained a paltry 164 yards of total offense while giving up 411 to the revved-up Giants D. The Giants blew some scoring opportunities in that game (in the 2nd quarter alone, they had three drives totaling 186 yards that were only turned into field goals.) Expect the Redskins to play back to their offensive output of the previous two games. Both teams are playing in games that didn’t have much offensive efficiency. Look for those yards to turn into points and more offense than expected in this one. Go with the over.

Thanks for reading Sports & Gaming News this week. Good luck and be careful. For a free copy of our 2006 Maximum Profit Football Annual visit www.FootballAnnual.com You’ll also get a free email subscription to this Sports & Gaming News column when you arrange to get your free football annual by visiting www.FootballAnnual.com.




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