By Kevin O’Neill
We had another winning weekend on our late phone service last
weekend, but several of my customers (who are a very savvy group
in an industry where most people’s customers are complete
lunkheads) overreacted to one of the losses. The loss was with
Kansas +2 over Texas A&M. Kansas controlled the game for
much of the way but failed to execute a 3rd and 1 that would
have come close to putting the game away. After punting, they
allowed Texas A&M a TD drive to go ahead 1 followed by the
2-point conversion to win by 3 in the game’s final minute.
I received a surge of emails and phone messages following the
game about what an unjust loss it was and how we deserved better.
While it is tough to lose a game late, that’s why they
play the 4th quarter. It’s part of the game and it counts.
And we’re talking about a game where even before the final
drive, A&M had outgained Kansas (finishing with better than
a 100+ yard advantage) and the Aggies converted 20 first downs
to only 10 for the Jayhawks. Did I like seeing the A&M tight
end sky for the fingertip 2-point catch on a play with no truly
open receivers? Of course I didn’t. But they play a full
60 minutes and the Aggies were the better team in the entire
span of play. Despite the early lead, we were not necessarily
on the right side with Kansas in a game that could have gone
either way and we lost.
Was it difficult to lose with Kansas? Sure. I wasn’t
terribly pleased with the final minute of that game. But you
need to brush yourself off and move on to the next play. The
worst thing in the world is to credit yourself for lucky wins
while ruing your “luck” when the breaks go against
you. The late Pete Axthelm of Newsweek/NBC/Inside Sports/ESPN
fame would say that you’re angering “Goddess of
Wagering”. What’s really happening is that your
critical thinking and decision-making skills go out the window
and your handicapping and betting both suffer.
The lessons here? First, be honest when determining how just
a wagering result really is. Secondly, when you’re unlucky
realize it is part of the game and those things will even
out over time. Finally, when a result is lucky, determine
why your analysis was off base. Use that analysis as a way
to improve instead of just accepting your dumb luck.
The Oakland Raiders are clearly the worst team in the NFL.
The Raiders sport a couple of statistics that are eye-poppingly
bad. Offensively, the Raiders average only 4.2 yards per pass
attempt, which is positively dreadful passing efficiency and
trails the rest of the league by a substantial margin. To
compare, the next worst is Atlanta at 5.1 yards per pass attempt.
Giving up 29 yards per game on 5 sacks (both league worsts)
hurt the Raiders here, as that yardage is counted against
passing yardage, unlike in college football, where it is counted
as negative rushing yardage.
On defense, the Raiders simply give up too much too easily.
Opponents of the Silver & Black need to gain an average
of only 10.4 yards to score a point, worst in the league by
a full yard and a half. -2 turnovers per game (once again,
worst in the league) hurts their efficiency numbers. This
is simply a very bad team right now. And with Randy Moss and
Warren Sapp not exactly known for cheery, can-do attitudes
in adversity, the young players around them might not learn
everything there is to learn about professionalism and playing
out the season with some pride.
We’ve been unimpressed at times with Arkansas’
Springdale High School offense (offensive coordinator Malzahn
has never coached above the high school level before this
year), but obviously they had their day at Auburn. If you
missed the video of how they set up their trick play, check
it out at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LukZ4I0tscE
. What’s most impressive is the way they hid the little
back behind the tightly bunched linemen coming out of the
huddle. Good show.
With Coach Hoeppner back from another brain surgery (hopefully
for good) and key players returning back from injuries. Indiana
plays hard. In their 17-point loss in Iowa City last year
they outgained the superior Hawkeyes 446-425. Iowa not at
their best as road chalk. After falling behind 25-7 in the
second quarter, the upset 34-32 win at Illinois last week
showed a lot of fight out of the Hoosiers and they can hang
around for a little while against an Iowa team that doesn’t
brandish the offense many of us expected them to enjoy. Indiana’s
Marcus Thigpen may be the best player you’ve never heard
of. He already has 3 kickoff returns for touchdowns this year.
This is not the esteemed Kirk Ferentz’s best role, as
Iowa is 0-6 to the number as a road favorite since the start
of the 2004 season. Take the big points with the hard-trying
Hoosiers.
Our colleague Dave Fobare is doing a splendid job with his
handicapping. Check out the hotline for Dave’s free
analysis at 1-770-618-8700. The hotline is a free 24-hour
service that will provide you with valuable information from
a hard working handicapper, so call regularly.
Titans played in a surprising 14-13 tight loss at the Colts,
and a surprising number of times a team that plays in an extremely
low scoring game bounces back to play a higher scoring game.
And that game wasn’t the absolute slugfest it appeared
to be, as there were 597 yards of total offense. Vince Young
will be tough to defend at times and he is more likely to
make mistakes that are returned for TD’s than a more
experienced QB would. The Redskins were offensive masters
for a couple of weeks but gained a paltry 164 yards of total
offense while giving up 411 to the revved-up Giants D. The
Giants blew some scoring opportunities in that game (in the
2nd quarter alone, they had three drives totaling 186 yards
that were only turned into field goals.) Expect the Redskins
to play back to their offensive output of the previous two
games. Both teams are playing in games that didn’t have
much offensive efficiency. Look for those yards to turn into
points and more offense than expected in this one. Go with
the over.
Thanks for reading Sports & Gaming News this week. Good
luck and be careful. For a free copy of our 2006 Maximum Profit
Football Annual visit www.FootballAnnual.com
You’ll also get a free email subscription to this Sports
& Gaming News column when you arrange to get your free
football annual by visiting www.FootballAnnual.com.
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