Media Bias Favors Black Kick Returners

SureIf you laid the 4 or 4½ Tampa Bay on Monday night it is likely the toughest loss you’ve ever been saddled with. If you won with Indianapolis (less likely, the Bucs were a hugely popular play) you likely have never had a more fortuitous win. 35-14 with less than four minutes left was certainly considered by anyone watching to be money in the bank. How is a bettor to handle such an unexpected loss?

A player with a realistic approach toward the activity of sports betting knows that such a result will happen on rare occasions, and that less remarkable, but still unlucky results will occur with great frequency. It is not unreasonable to expect that 40% or more of the bets you make will be “one play” games, that is, games you can look back on and say “if that one play doesn’t happen, the result is different. If you can’t handle that, you shouldn’t be playing. But even a player who accepts this reality can be thrown off his game by a result of the magnitude of Indianapolis’ stunning comeback. That’s why it is important to do your best to develop the following characteristics.

Bet conservatively: When we say conservatively, we’re not talking 8% of bankroll. We’re talking 1 or 2% of your overall sports bankroll. Such conservatism not only helps you ride out losing streaks, but it insures that a single play is never overwhelmingly important. Let’s think about that 8% figure, considered by some to be “conservative”. Say you have two games going at the same time, and they are both coming down to the wire. You’re trying to win 8% of your $5000 bankroll on each bet. They could go either way. The difference between 2-0 and 0-2 in this instance is the difference between your bankroll being $5800 and $4120. If you go 0-2 your new bankroll will be only 71% of what it looked like it could have been a few minutes earlier. And that’s with only two games. That’s not conservative, that’s making an options trader look like a savings bond investor in comparison. Don’t bet at a level of bankroll suggested as “conservative” by someone trying to justify a high fee. Bet in truly conservative fashion. If your plays are sound, you get good numbers, and wager intelligently, this can be a very profitable activity in the long run.

Be honest about the quality of your wins and losses: Two weeks ago I was invited to participate in the Stardust Invitational and was the second person in the nine years of the contest to go 7-0. While most of my selections were sound ones, one was pure luck. The Cincinnati Bearcats lost to Miami-Ohio by five as seven-point favorites. They had to score three TD’s in the last eight minutes to sneak in the back door after getting dominated all day. Although the back door coverability of Cincy’s Gino Giudugli was a factor in our handicap, let’s be reasonable. That cover was pure luck. My Tampa Bay loss was pure luck as well. It was payback, as these things tend to even out. With our Tampa play on Monday night we had some fear of Payton Manning’s comeback ability, but come on, that was pure luck as well. Be realistic about these things. How many bettors do we know who constantly complain that luck is against them when in reality it evens out. Having a “genius complex” where your lucky wins are all a result of your lucid analysis and your unlucky losers are the result of the stars aligning against you does nothing to improve your handicapping and wagering and may invite bad luck.

Accept lucky wins and losses: Accept the unavoidable influence of luck. It helps keep you on an even keel. It is good for your emotions and pays the proper respect to what the Pete Axthelm used to call “The Goddess of Wagering”. Accept the influence of the goddess and she will be less likely to punish you. Despite the Tampa loss, I still had a winning weekend. Monday night was unpleasant, but I’m not dwelling on it. Accepting it has me in a positive frame of mind that gives me a much better chance of winning this weekend and in the months to come.

On to other news and notes for the sporting minded….

Don’t you know love how anyone who refers to games 5, 6, and 7 in print has to put “(if necessary)”, and how it is always in parentheses. Apparently we’re too stupid to do the complex math of a seven game series ourselves. The best part about the Red Sox having an outfielder named Gabe Kapler is while there is no Barbarino, Washington or Horshack on the club the general manager is a kid named Epstein. Earlier this season Kansas State beat Troy State 41-5. A few weeks later Marshall came in to Manhattan and upset Kansas State 27-20. The following week Troy State gained a home win over Marshall 33-24. What this proves beyond a shadow of a doubt is that Kansas State is 52 points better than Kansas State. Isn’t comparative score handicapping wonderful?

Imagine if the first time you watched Pumping Iron someone said to you, “that egomaniac bullying poor Lou Ferrigno will be governor of California some day.” Or a theater companion predicted “I know this ‘roid head playing Hercules’ English is so bad that that they have to dub over his lines, but he will one day have governing authority over the world’s fifth largest economy.” How preposterous. Only in America.

It wouldn’t be so bad if they just showed Kerry Wood’s wife every couple of innings or showed a replay of her during particularly emotional moments. Same with the “sports bar near Fenway” shots during Red Sox road games. But mercy, these TV people just become addicted to the shot and can’t leave well enough alone. Following Boston’s dramatic fifth game victory in Oakland a group of fans broke into Fenway Park and ran around on the field. And you thought Cubs fans were drunks.

A Seattle newspaper columnist named Jim Moore had some sort of bet with Jeff Cirillo of the Mariners that Cirillo would donate $20,000 to Moore’s favorite charity if he failed to hit .280. Cirillo had a miserable year, hitting .205. This week Cirillo wrote $10,000 checks to a couple of animal shelters. I cried like Dick Vermeil when we had to put down our 11-year old golden retriever on Easter Monday, 2000. And our yellow lab Derby, born the day after the attacks on NYC and DC, gives her best to all. But if I had a charitable free roll with someone else’s $20K I think there would be some help granted to some actual human beings. I’m not criticizing, just stating what I would do. People are certainly free to do what they wish with their own money, although it wasn’t the columnist’s money in this case, was it? What are the most important factors in selecting an offshore sports book? Find out by reading the article of the same title at www.consumerbet.com.

Did you hear about the ESPN commentator who said that a player was overrated because of his race? Yep, former journeyman linebacker Bryan Cox turned ESPN commentator Bryan Cox said this summer that Atlanta Falcon linebacker Keith Brooking was “overrated” and referred to him as a “great white hope”. You hadn’t heard that? Hmmmm, that’s interesting.

Rush Limbaugh said "the media has been very desirous that a black quarterback do well." According to his former ESPN colleague Tom Jackson “What Rush Limbaugh said could not have been more hurtful.” Sure it could have. Yet with three major editorial cartoonists separately portraying Limbaugh as a Klansman and his statements widely decried as being “racist” and “bigoted”, he’s being painted as having said something much worse. Again, Limbaugh said “the media has been very desirous that a black quarterback do well.” He should have followed our “Jesse Jackson Law of Racial Commentary”. Unless you are black, you simply cannot comment on anything in a way that touches on race unless that same statement would be made by Jesse Jackson.

Let’s take a look at a non-conference college affair as Nevada travels to Washington. Two significant differences here between the reputation of these teams and what they're doing now. Nevada is not the offensive juggernaut they've been in previous years. Two QB's combined for only 13 of 36 passing for 180 yards and 2 interceptions in their 16-12 loss to UNLV. Chance Kretschmer ran for only 56 yards on 16 carries and despite impressive seasonal stats is disappointing against better teams. Kretschmer is going for 149 yards per game vs. Southern Utah, San Jose State, and SMU but has gained only 60 yards per game against good defenses Oregon and UNLV. Washington has been a poor big favorite over the years (4-13-1 ATS laying 7 or more under Neuheisel) but the new regime has taken pains to stretch leads out late vs. outmanned opposition. A 10-10 halftime tie vs. Indiana turned into a 38-13 win. 17-7 at the half vs. Idaho turned into a 45-14 win. Incredibly the Huskies were outscored 39-0 at UCLA in the second half. That humiliation will spur them here while Nevada gave their all against hated rival UNLV and may not have much less. Look for Washington to break this one open after intermission to get the cover.

If you enjoy our game writeups here you would probably find our 8-page weekly newsletter The Maximum Profit Football Weekly to be useful. Instead of touching on every game on the card, even games that we have no interest in, The Max gives detailed writeups on seven college games and four NFL games that we have a well-formed opinion on. It hits your fax machine or email in-box every Monday evening with the analysis of the upcoming weekend. In addition to the games, there is also a handicapping article or study published every week and a systems page that details three or four systems, their historical record, and the games they apply to each week. You also gain access to our Midweek Phone Selection (Navy over Air Force last week), a late week email/fax update report, and similar quality information. In it’s fourth year, The Max is a good take, and available for only $129 through the Super Bowl. Obviously we should have some sort of whiz-bang e-commerce engine for you to use to order, but you’ve got to sign up the old fashioned way, by calling 1-770-649-1078 and using a credit card. If you’d rather send a check we’re at Strategic Sports Publishing, 8610 Roswell Road, Suite 900-300, Atlanta, GA 30350.

Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe is a very underrated football coach. The Flintstone’s Kazoo is a very underrated cartoon character. And isn’t your favorite web site’s message board just itching for an underrated football coach/ underrated cartoon character thread? At a Mexican restaurant in Lincoln, Nebraska former Husker defensive lineman Chad Kelsay was arrested for allegedly eating from the plates of other customers. What ridiculous charges. How is he supposed to know what is worth ordering?

You didn’t play them when we wrote up the Bears in this space last week, and you won’t play them this week, but once again we have an inferior defense laying points into Chicago. We like to go against poor defensive favorites, even when forced to use a team quarterbacked by Kordell Stewart. New Orleans is allowing almost 30 points per game by opponents and just shouldn’t be laying points into anyone. Take the points again this week with this ugly dog.

Thanks for reading. Good luck this weekend. Be careful.
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Kevin O’Neill is the director of content for www.consumerbet.com. His 24-hour free telephone selection hotline can be accessed by calling 1-770-618-8700.

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