By Kevin O’Neill
Incredible as it seems, we’re less than a month away from
college football’s opening night, Thursday, September
1st. We’ll be giving you some college conference previews
in this space coming up in subsequent weeks. We’ll look
at a number of different things in the following few paragraphs,
and some information on the Colts/Falcons game in Tokyo is included.
Nothing has you rooting for and against weather than a major
league baseball total that has already decided when some thunderstorms
are swooping in. I work with a guy who does a great job with
baseball totals (and only totals) as we’re firmly on
the plus side of a solid, if unspectacular season. But a misstep
was made on a game here in Atlanta the other night, and the
under was lost by the later innings. I considered it a loser
but then my weather radio started to blink. Checked out the
radar and the race was on. Unfortunately the game ended before
the storms arrived. My bet wasn’t quite big enough to
hire a private plane for a cloud seeding operation.
Those of you playing Saratoga and Del Mar (and you must visit
each gorgeous locale at some point) know of the frustration
of picking a horse that wins only to miss out by failing to
nail the exotics. Here’s the Daily Racing Form’s
Steven Crist’s humorous take on a recent such occurrence
in his own wagering in the tenth race on Saratoga’s
opening day:
“How to turn 11-1 into less than 11-10:
- Write in Wednesday Spa Diary that Blues Highway is the
interesting alternative to heavy favorite Kathir;
- Greedily eschew win bet at 11-1 in favor of $200 trifecta
play keying Blues Highway with logical contenders plus interesting
longshots including 65-1 Gold Way West;
- Watch happily as Blues Highway ($25.00) draws off to win
by 1 ¾ for Bond/Castellano;
- Watch unhappily as Kathir barely holds second at 11-10
while 6-1 Lethimthinkhesboss edges Gold Way West for third;
- Collect $2 trifecta returning $412.50 for $200 investment
on 11-1 shot.
See, it's easy!”
I’ve been there, Steve, I’ve been there. Horse
racing’s tough. There’s a reason why the only
people making a living in that game are getting a 10% rebate.
In the Boston Globe this past weekend Dan Shaughnessy penned
a tribute to Peter Gammons, who was honored in Cooperstown
this weekend. Before he became a talking head on ESPN, Gammons
was a world-class sportswriter, and Shaughnessy picked out
one spectacular passage. After the Red Sox lost the ’75
World Series to the Reds Gammons wrote:
''We have postponed autumn long enough now. There are storm
windows to put in, wood to chop for the whistling months ahead.
The floorboards are getting awfully cold in the morning, the
cider sweet. Where Lynn dove and El Tiante stood will be frozen
soon, and while it is now 43 years for Thomas A. Yawkey and
57 for New England, the fugue that was the 1975 baseball season
will play in our heads until next we meet at the Fens again."
Gammons is a big part of the reason why New Englanders are
so insanely nuts over the Red Sox and baseball in general.
We’re coming off a spectacular football season, where
my Strategic Sports Publishing football service finished 74-34
(68.5%) to seize the #1 ranking. More information is available
at www.ConsumerBet.com.
I don’t bet the NFL exhibition season. It used to be
a good opportunity when you would know that one team was trying
and one team wasn’t, but that was before the internet
era. Now it is a good opportunity for the guy who sees the
coach say, live in the press conference, that he isn’t
playing his starters in a game. But the opportunity is gone
with a rapid line move. We’ll likely see a couple of
6-point line moves in the preseason.
But though I don’t bet the preseason, there may be
some value in the “American Bowl” between the
Colts and the Falcons due to some curious discussions that
have taken place between the coaches. Not wanting either Peyton
Manning nor Mike Vick to get hurt, Atlanta coach Jim Mora
and Tony Dungee of Indianapolis appear to have agreed not
to blitz early in the game so the Japanese crowd can enjoy
a glimpse of the two mega-stars. The first quarter over and/or
the first half over the total, as long as those numbers aren’t
too inflated, might be a decent opportunity.
Don’t expect the NFL to come back here without a change
to the playing surface. The Tokyo Dome artificial surface
is in dreadful shape, worn and hard as a rock. The staff also
had a hard time covering up the baseball infields. Not really
sure how this will influence the game other than making sure
that established veterans have very little playing time.
We’ll be back next week and be heavier on the football,
with a lot of team previews coming up in the next few weeks.
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