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  PROJECTING THE PACE SCENARIO KEY TO MAKING MONEY IN THIS DERBY— 5/5/2006
By Kevin O’Neill
Speed or no speed? That is the question.

In last year’s Kentucky Derby, a brutal early pace (45.38 second half mile) fell apart and Giacomo picked up the pieces for a win at 50-1 odds. The final quarter was run in a dawdling 26.87 seconds and illuminating the low quality of that race, Giacomo hasn’t won a race since.

In 2001, Monarchos won a Derby with a similar pace scenario and didn’t do much of anything after that. The next year, fearful of getting eaten up in another vicious pace scenario, the jockey of every horse but War Emblem was afraid to challenge for the lead. As a result, an unhurried War Emblem had plenty of energy left to continue on to victory.

With nearly half the field of this year’s Derby never showing the ability to do anything but gun for the lead, will it be a race that falls apart and leads to a Monarchos or Giacomo type that gets the win? Or with such great fear of a suicidal speed duel, will somebody get an unpressured early advantage and continue on to victory?

Quality Class: Thoroughbred experts consider this Derby to be exceptionally deep, with many accomplished horses in this 3-year old crop. Many feel that a cogent case can be made for 9, 10, or even 11 horses. In recent years a single horse has become the star This may be more like 1997, when the final order of finish was Silver Charm, Captain Bodgit, Free House, and Pulpit, with that crop being joined later in the campaign by Touch Gold. It would be a rare treat to see the 2006 crop slug it out throughout the summer all the way to the Breeder’s Cup.

Where does Churchill rate? There are some beautiful tracks out there, like Saratoga, Keeneland, and Del Mar. Churchill Downs isn’t in that top tier, but it is solidly ensconced in the second level of tracks and the atmosphere on Derby Day is unmatched.

Unfortunately, most of us won’t be at Churchill Downs on Derby Day. When it comes to betting on the Kentucky Derby, most people have three options.

Option 1: At the track or simulcast center:

  • In many places you pay to get in.
  • Overpriced lousy food and drinks.
  • 84-year old men bitching and moaning all around you.
  • Wait in line in a fog of cigarette smoke to place your bets, all the while hoping that the disinterested clerk doesn’t screw up your wager.
  • Taxes withheld on winning exotic tickets paying 300-1 or more.

Option 2: Typical Sports Book:

  • Unwieldy inferior software,
  • No exotic bets other than a daily double and exacta,
  • Limits win bets to 20-1 and exotics at 100-1. (If you pick an exacta that pays $420 on track, the book gives you a $202 return)

Option 3: Click Pinnacle Sports, The Premier Race Book in the World

  • 10% deposit bonus on your initial deposit.
  • Spectacularly fast and easy software that allows all bets, wheels, part-wheels, and other bets that you can’t make at other books.
  • Accepts all bets, including trifectas, pick 3’s, pick 4’s, and superfectas.
  • Pays off on full track odds (up to $100,000 on the Kentucky Derby)
  • 7% rebate on all your horse action (win or lose) paid daily. This is huge!!!
  • Extraordinarily low-juice baseball (8-cent sides, 10-cent totals) with high betting limits from overnight to game time.

It is crucially important that Pinnacle doesn’t limit the winnings to $202 for a $2 bet, as the average exacta payout in the Derby the past 5 years has been over $2,500 for that $2 bet. And a lot of people could purchase a small island if they got a rebate of 7% of their total horse action.

With ease of use, convenience, a 10% deposit bonus, 7% deposits, and full track odds, Pinnacle is the clear and easy choice when it comes to horse betting. Pinnacle operates online and by email, phone wagering is available by request. Click here to make the smart choice and get started with Pinnacle Sports.

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