Windy City Hedge, Misguided Cubs Fans, and Irresponsible Media

Chicago businesses that would have boomed had the Cubs made the World Series are left with much smaller profits than anticipated. But using the “Sports Betting as a Business Hedge” strategy we wrote about in our book “Football Betting: Strategies for the Smart Player” would have offered them a wonderful way to guarantee profits. When the Cubs were up 3-1 and only disaster would have kept them from reaching the World Series any travel agents, t-shirt vendors, bar owners, rooftop seat sellers, etc. could have locked in their World Series profits right now. How? By betting the Marlins in Game 5 and letting it ride, a business could have gotten a 15-1 return on their money. Let’s say one of these businesses expected to make a profit of $30,000 from the World Series. $2,000 risked on the Marlins in game 5 at -150 with profits reinvested in the later games at +230 and +200 would have given them that $30,000 they expected to make. If the Cubs made the World Series they would have been out only $2,000 of their expected $30,000. This very valid insurance vehicle is rarely used by businesses that think it is somehow unsavory, but I bet some of them are wishing they had set something up offshore or sent an employee to Vegas to implement this plan. Cubs fans could also have purchased their own “emotion insurance” by doing something similar. A big fan who knows they would be upset could have tossed $100 into the mix and soothed their pain with a long weekend somewhere using their $1500 in profits.

Let’s talk about this poor soul who touched the foul ball in Chicago. Some are blaming him for the demise of the Cubs, ignoring a pitching staff that gave up 17 runs in the last 11 innings of their series. In the mid-1970’s my dad took two of my sisters and me to a night game at Fenway Park. We had tickets in the upper box seats. Near the end of the game, a pop up was lifted into the stands. A woman tried to catch it, and I’ve never forgotten the sickening “thwack” it made when it smacked her square in the mouth. Neither do you forget seeing gushing blood when you’re nine years old or so, so I still recall this woman as a crimson fountain being whisked away by ushers to seek medical attention. Four or so years ago on a visit to Boston, sitting in almost the exact same seats a quarter century later, Manny Ramirez (then of the Cleveland Indians) hit a sky-high pop up right over us. In a rare display of hand-eye coordination, I managed to catch the ball right before it conked my future wife on the head. The hand bruise I picked up was worth the thrill of catching a major league pop-up (the other two foul balls I’ve caught were an easy blooper and one picked up off the ground). But the feeling was more relief than euphoria, as it definitely would have caused my wife an injury of some sort had I not plucked it off her noggin.

Having been under a few intimidating pop-ups in my time (and having not brought a glove to a game since I was about six), I know that it can be a little bit disconcerting. When you don’t judge the trajectory of pop ups terribly frequently, a pop that is destined to land ten seats away from you can look like it will fall right in your hands until a split-second or so before it actually hits. The suggestion that this poor guy being skewered in Chicago should have been able to look at the pop up, judge perfectly that it was going to land only a foot from him, and let Moises Alou make the catch is completely unrealistic.

Critics of this poor kid seem to suggest that he should have acted properly to the following series of thoughts, “Pop up. Coming this way. Wow that’s high. It’s right over us. Let’s see if I can catch it. Not over my face though, I don’t have a glove. Man, I hope those two little kids behind me or the woman next to me don’t get skulled by this thing. Here it is! Right on top of me! I can reach it! But Alou can catch it! Don’t touch it! Pull back!”

It is completely unrealistic to expect that a non-athlete should have had the ability to judge the pot, think this way and have his body act on it. In the highlights every night during the baseball season we see ballplayers at the peak of their athletic powers bump into each other on pop-ups, stop and let the ball drop between them, and make other defensive mistakes as the result of improper judgment and miscommunication. Yet this poor kid, who has been castigated by fans and media alike, is expected to seamlessly make the right decision for his team in an instant. Ridiculous.

Adding fuel to the misguided outrage of some Cubs fans is a media with kerosene cans at the ready. Minutes after the game last night ESPN SportsCenter anchors Stuart Scott and Scott van Pelt rabble-roused in a truly disgraceful manner. As Scott criticized the fan Van Pelt said in the background “they will kill him”. Just in case we didn’t hear him the first time he repeated even louder and with greater emphasis “they will KILL him” in a tone of voice that was half “they should do it” and half “this is totally awesome”. Scott’s criticism of the fan was particularly ironic. In a “look at me, I’m a player” stunt at Jets camp before the 2002 season the first pass he tried to catch hit him in the eye, permanently damaging his sight and requiring surgery. Van Pelt’s inflammatory comments injecting the word “kill” were as reprehensible as it gets in the broadcasting business. But don’t expect any criticism from others in the sports media, as their career goals all revolve around receiving paychecks from ESPN.

Fortunately, immediately following Scott and Van Pelt’s labeling of the fan as public enemy number one, ESPN immediately cut to the Baseball Tonight set where the classy Harold Reynolds noted how difficult it would be for a fan to make the proper judgment in such a situation and fellow panelist Bobby Valentine agreed.

I never thought I’d ever write anything even resembling this, but Van Pelt and Scott’s irresponsibility actually had me longing for Chris Berman. Sure, Berman has regressed into a self-parody of catch phrases and passé classic rock lyrics, but he’s usually pretty good about keeping things in perspective. And he’s never predicted that a fan will be murdered when the manager, bobbling shortstop, and a pitching staff that allows eight runs in an inning are truly the ones to blame.

We need to clarify something that we reported here recently. After we appeared in the prestigious Stardust Invitational in Las Vegas recently KDWN’s John Kelly told listeners the next week that we turned in the first 7-0 card in the nine-year history of the contest. Stardust Sports Book director Bob Scucci was quoted in a few places saying the same thing. But the Daily Racing Form’s Dave Tuley uncovered the fact that Mike Orkin actually went 7-0 a few years ago. Orkin, a math professor and casino book author, went 7-0 but the sheet handed out at the Stardust that week had an error on one of his selections so people thought he went 6-1. Thanks to our man Ted Sevransky for bringing the corrected information to our attention, and good luck in the Invitational yourself this weekend, Ted.

Last week we used our experience in the Colts improbably victory over the Tampa Bay as a basis for a treatise on handling a tough loss. We had another one Monday night, as our selection on the Falcons +10½ over St. Louis. If the Falcons had had three fewer turnovers, 150 more yards of offense, had ten fewer defensive breakdowns, and received a halftime heart transplant they would have been right in this one. Maybe handling the atrocious loss is fodder for another article. We can afford to laugh at our loser, as it lowered our weekend record to a highly profitable 8-3 against the number. If you’re interested in our phone service, which is hovering around 60% on the season, or our newsletter, with NFL selections that are 43-23-4 (65.6%) ATS since the issue released October 28, 2002 you can call us in the office at 1-770-649-1078 and we’ll tell you about the packages and pricing. For what it’s worth, a new customer told us he paid us less for the rest of the season for our phone service than he paid a high-profile TV handicapper for a single week. You can also check out our free plays at 1-770-618-8700, which is a free call.

TCU keeps winning, but not in the kind of impressive fashion that makes you want to lay points with them. The Horned Frogs hose UAB this Saturday. Watson Brown Blazer teams are always well prepared. QB Darrell Hackney had his best game of the year in the Blazers big win over Cincinnati on Saturday and UAB shut out the Bearcats in the second half, which is tough to do against Cincy comeback specialist Gino Giudugli. No masterpiece for offensive minded fans, this game figures to be extremely low scoring, which makes double digits worth a look. Take the points with UAB as this one could be tight.

Did you hear about the ESPN commentator who said that a player was overrated because of his race? Yep, former journeyman linebacker turned ESPN commentator Bryan Cox said this summer that Atlanta Falcon linebacker Keith Brooking was “overrated” and referred to him as a “great white hope”. You hadn’t heard that? Hmmmm, that’s interesting. With all the high and mighty commentary on the less inflammatory statements of other guy, the lack of reporting on Cox’s summertime comments is curious, calling into question the judgment, biases, and ability to think critically of those who have piled on to you-know-who. One more interesting fact about this entire affair, Rush Limbaugh has hosted his national radio program for 15 years. Let’s assume that with vacation, weeks off when he lost his hearing, etc. he has been on for 45 weeks per year, 3 hours per day. That’s a total of 2025 hours of extemporaneous speaking live on the air. Yet every quote you’ve seen attributed to him to “prove” he’s a racist occurred when he was an FM “shock jock” in Pittsburgh years earlier. His job back then was to raise a ruckus. If he had said something in those 2025 hours of national political programming that was bigoted you can bet that you would have heard about it. Were Limbaugh’s statements artfully stated? Of course not, and he should have been more savvy in the way he would be hung out to dry by saying something even remotely referring to race. Of course he has bigger issues to deal with now, having checked into rehab for a prescription drug habit.

We’re going to suggest that you take a look at the under in the Bills/Redskins game this weekend. After a hot start, the Bills are averaging fewer than 220 yards of total offense in their last four games. They simply can’t run the ball, going for 53 yards or less in four of their six games this season. Expect them to throw the ball? Don’t, as key passing game playmaker Eric Moulds is hobbled with a groin injury. The Redskins have had a lot of points scored in bizarre ways in their recent games against the Giants, Pats, Eagles, and Bucs. Those four games were much more pedestrian than they appeared, and a look at the matchups in this one suggests a low scoring slugfest. Go under 39 in this interconference battle that is the first game on the schedule, but has been time changed to 4:15PM.

Thanks for reading. Good luck this weekend. Be careful.
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Kevin O’Neill is the director of content for www.consumerbet.com. His 24-hour free telephone selection hotline can be accessed by calling 1-770-618-8700.

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